What Should Your Team Do: Boston Red Sox

The day has arrived...  New material from The Hottest Stove is here!  Today begins a new series titled "What Should Your Team Do?"  That "Should" is in italics because this series is not meant to be predictive, but prescriptive.  Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, teams don't always do what they should.  That's what we are here for; to give ideas to all of our readers that also happen to be general managers of Major League Baseball teams.

Each post will feature one MLB team, and just for the sake of some organizational structure, we will be going in reverse order of next year's draft.  That means that first up is... The Boston Red Sox!

Boston Red Sox

• This team just won the World Series, so a foundation is in place.  But that doesn't mean that they don't have work to do.  Along with players like David Ortiz getting a year older, the Red Sox have decisions to make about several significant contributors--Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Johnny Gomes, Stephen Drew, etc.--who are free agents.
• Re-sign Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamaccia, and Mike Napoli.  All of them contributed positively on both offense and defense last year, and all are still in their athletic prime.  In addition, free agency doesn't have any better options at their respective positions.
• Let Stephen Drew walk, collect the draft pick, and let Xander Bogaerts play shortstop every day. The kid can play some ball.
• In shifting Bogaerts to short, give Middlebrooks a legitimate shot to start at third base.  He's shown potential, and any chance for this team to get younger is a positive.  
• Sign a veteran backup at first/third base like old friend Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, or Eric Chavez.
• Sign Michael Morse to function as a bench bat/platoon partner with Daniel Nava.  Johnny Gomes would be preferable in this role, but is likely to be overvalued as a free agent due to his enhanced World Series profile.  Morse is undervalued due to an injury ridden year last year.
• Move Doubront into the starting rotation.  He is a more than serviceable fifth starter.

Here's what the lineup and rotation look like:

CF--Ellsbury

RF--Victorino

2B--Pedroia

DH--Ortiz

1B--Napoli

LF--Nava

SS--Bogaerts

3B--Middlebrooks

C--Saltalamaccia

SP1: Lester

SP2: Lackey

SP3: Bucholz

SP4: Peavey

SP5: Doubront

The True Cost of Luxury

An interesting thing happens when a big market team decides to overpay for a free agent. It starts a cycle in which the team has to continue paying for the same mistake over and over again. This is....the more painful, yet unwritten luxury tax. Often, these factors are glossed over because these teams can use their seemingly unlimited resources to cover their tracks, but once a team is labeled as a "free agent big spender" the following problems blossom immediately:

1) By injecting money into your own division with a free agent signing, you are elevating the playing field for all of your competitors and forcing them to spend big.
This is seemingly unavoidable if you want to be successful, but each free agent signing makes the cost of future acquisitions and the cost of a win more expensive moving forward. This hike in cost moving forward occurs regardless of whether or not your big time free agent acquisition produces like you expected him to. For example, the signings of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson were obviously very expensive, but if the Rangers then signed Prince Fielder and/or Yu Darvish to counter...a large portion of the value to the Angels was just lost. To further this point, if any of the players involved underachieves, the result is a huge cost AND a net loss in performance relative to your competitors.

2) Farewell to the home town discount.
Every team has core players, and these players expect to be treated as such. Therefore, when a core player sees his team lure a free agent to town with a big contract, he sees this as the floor for his own negotiations (assuming relative talent). Teams such as Tampa or Oakland do have a small amount of leverage in that, they can point to the books and say, "If you wish to stay, here is the highest amount we can reasonably pay you." Although this is a false ceiling, it does tend to ground negotiations and forces the player to weigh their drive to achieve a big contract against staying in a place they enjoy. If the player leaves, small market club can often absorb the PR backlash since the public knows of the club's financial limitations. This is even sometimes directed back at the player with accusations of greed. Without this false ceiling, the club ALWAYS loses the PR battle. For example, no one in their right mind would pay Jeter as much as his most recent contract was worth. However, the Yankees were stuck between fans romanticizing Jeter's past performance and Jeter's knowledge of their endless revenue streams. This same factor assisted in pushing Nomar Garciaparra out the door in 2004 because the Red Sox payroll was going sky-high, just as Nomar's performance was in decline. The reports were that the sides weren't close on an extension, so the Sox rightfully opted to make a trade to bring in Orlando Cabrera.

3) Relativity.
Again touching on the Yankees, any free agent pitcher will certainly have New York's history of spending in mind. Negotiations from the player's perspective will certainly open with a favorable comparison. Starting pitcher? "Well I'm THIS much better than AJ Burnett, and you gave him 5 years and 86.5 million. Let's start at 5 years and $110 million" Mediocre relief pitcher? "Well I'm about the same as your ineffective reliever Rafael Soriano, so I'll just take the 3 years, 30 million." Eek. You can see how that adds up quickly.

These three problems never wear off, and they actually accelerate over time. The value of each dollar spent decreases each offseason, because agents and players alike study these trends and use them to their advantage. This is the reason that Scott Boras and Dan Lozano intentionally draw the Phillies, Red Sox, Cubs or Yankees into every single negotiation. These agents have recognized that for these teams to get a dollar's worth of production, they are required to pay their client closer to $1.50.

Editor's note: I'm wondering if the restraint shown by the Yankees and Red Sox so far this offseason are cursory attempts to break this cycle. Contrarily, the Phillies' offseason spending thus far has shown this inflation pretty vividly (Overpay for an incumbent shortstop? check. Dramatically overpay for a closer? check.)

Bobby Valentine and the Myth of Managerial Experience Revisited

About a month ago, I wrote a column called "The Myth of Managerial Experience" in which I outlined two points. 1 ) Having managed before does not necessarily make someone a good manager, and 2) managers have very little impact statistically over the course of a season. Both points will be proved true over the next few years by the marriage of Bobby Valentine and the Boston Red Sox.

Bobby Valentine has a wealth of experience, and almost no success to show for it. He has managed 15 seasons and does not have a division title to show for it. He did muster an NL Pennant in 2000 with the Mets after a Wild Card berth. I think it's safe to say that Boston will have higher expectations than he's used to.

In “Baseball Between the Numbers” Baseball Prospectus writers tried to analyze the amount of runs that managers’ decisions have cost or gained their team over the past 40 years. While the book is from 2005 and the metrics need to be taken with a grain of salt, Bobby Valentine cost his team more runs than all but two managers over the past 40 years according to their data. He appears towards the top of each of their “Worst Manager by ___” tables. They also cite him by name as an example of how sometimes a manager can be so bad that it costs the team free agent signings. There's no doubt players will avoid cities where they do not respect the leadership. In my opinion, this is especially possible with Valentine given his strong personality and his terrible work on Baseball Tonight for all the world to see…

All that being said, Boston has a ton of money and a great roster already in place, so I think they are going to be fine in spite of this hiring. Let's hope that if Boston does have success, intelligent baseball folks attribute it to their wealth of resources and good business model rather than Valentine's leadership. Keep in mind that the Red Sox were on pace to win close to 100 games last year before their pitching injuries and historic collapse. Boston will be successful in spite of Valentine rather than because of him.

MLB Stock Watch

It's tough to evaluate where each team stands prior to free agency. Luckily here at The Hottest Stove, we've got you covered. Before the opinions of fans and owners are skewed by the hype of agents, the whiskey of the winter meetings and the warm tidings of Christmas, let's take a look at each team's overall position moving forward. For this stock watch we've considered a variety of factors including payroll space, current production of returning players, age of the roster, and any big time prospects climbing through the system.

NL East

Braves -Stable. The Braves should expect a bounce back from Heyward this year, and they have some incredible young talent. Beachy, Hanson, Kimbrel, Venters, and Tejeran are all excellent young pitchers, and I think the only thing to watch will be their offensive production. The division will be much tougher this year as the Marlins and Nationals are expected to spend wads of cash to make a run in 2012.

Marlins -Rising. See above. I have heard rumors connecting the Marlins to big bats, ace pitchers, and about everything else. Everyone expects them to make two or three big splashes this winter, and if that happens it will put them pretty close to the Braves and Phillies. Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton are just waiting for reinforcements.

Mets -Falling fast and switching to full rebuilding mode. Not only is their pitching terrible even in a pitcher's park, they have expressed pessimism about their ability to retain Jose Reyes. David Wright, essentially their only impact player left, has a monster contract compared to his actual production over the last few years. Even Wright has been rumored to be on the trading block. Lucas Duda, we're gonna need a big year out of you buddy....

Nationals -Rising fast. The Nationals will return a pitching staff including Stephen Strasburg, break out stud Jordan Zimmerman, and lefty Ross Detwiler. They also feature a great bullpen with Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen at the back end. If they spend the money for a few big bats, this roster might be ready to overtake the Phillies and Braves as soon as this year.

Phillies - Falling/Aging. Their roster still looks good on paper, and we'll see if they pay to keep Jimmy Rollins. Their pitching will again make them a contender in 2012, as long as Doc and Cliff Lee remain healthy. However, their offense no longer is the juggernaut we remember. Injuries have cut Chase Utley down to only about 60% of the production from the glory days, and Ryan Howard has declined significantly in each of the last three seasons. They will rely on him more than ever, and let's hope he lives up to his fresh, new contract that starts this year. (The Phillies front office is going to be addressing criticisms about this deal for the next five years, so get used to hearing it.)

NL Central

Astros - Rebuilding. In an amazing feat, the Astros managed to give up Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn without getting much value in return. Such is life in a fallen world.... Kidding aside, I do like some of the Houston pitching. Rodriguez, Norris and some young ones stepping forward could make the pitching the high point of the 2012 season. If I were Ed Wade, I would shop Norris and Rodriguez this winter since the team won't compete while they are in their prime anyway. As Rays VP of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman would say, "Never pay for a fourth or fifth place finish." That's not a real quote...but it makes a lot of sense.

Brewers - Falling slightly. The Brewers still have good pitching, but also will be losing a very "hefty" bat from their lineup. With the fact that their lineup was already pretty thin once opponents got past the fifth spot in their order, it will be interesting to see how they move forward. They probably would have enough money to make an offer to Reyes, but that would leave dramatic holes in the rest of their roster. It's tough to fill the spots from the 6-8 players departing with one big signing.

Cardinals - Stable. The Cardinals will most likely return a very competitive roster regardless of what happens in the Pujols derby. They return a very good lineup, and will add to their starting rotation a 20-game winner in Adam Wainwright. Their incredibly effective and young bullpen will return largely intact as well. If Pujols leaves, the Cards will be able to target a premier middle infielder, additional pitching, or trade for a premier player with a large contract. It's tough not to like their position moving forward. Don't forget that the Cards also have two future aces brewing in the minors should any of their starters take a step backward.

Cubs - Falling. Optimism abounds in Chicago, as it does every year. Bringing in Theo Epstein will inject life into a stalling franchise, and they will have a large amount of money to spend. The problem is that they have an incredible number of needs. "If we add a right fielder, first baseman, third baseman, a few bullpen arms and a few starting pitchers, we're going to be in BUSINESS." This scarcity of quality ballplayers is the primary reason why you won't see Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols wearing the little bear next spring.

Pirates - Falling. While they had a good run last year and still boast some good players, they will not return enough talent unless they spend major bucks in free agency. Keep in mind this is not their modus operandi over the past.....20 years or so. In an increasingly challenging NL central, the Pirates will need to step up their game, and hope for Pedro Alvarez to do the same.

Reds - Rising. If the Reds can straighten out their pitching woes, they will challenge the Cardinals for a playoff spot next year. Unfortunately, what they thought to be a position of strength has now turned into an achilles heel as a number of their young starters have failed to pan out thus far. Votto, Bruce, Heisey, Stubbs and Yonder Alonso make up a solid mix of inexpensive offensive production. If a few young arms step forward and they convince Bronson Arroyo to put down the guitar, this could be a dangerous team.

NL West

Diamondbacks - Rising. Gibson orchestrated a playoff berth without the assistance of starting shortstop Stephen Drew. If they can fill out the back end of their rotation, they will be set up for another solid year. Impact players Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Justin Upton and the aforementioned Drew form a core that is going to be good for years to come.

Dodgers - Selling/Divorcing. The ownership situation likely will put a stranglehold on any big moves, which is a shame. Any team returning a Cy Young candidate (Kershaw) and MVP candidate (Kemp) deserves better than what we will see from the Dodgers in 2012.

Giants - Falling slightly. The Giants still have a very good roster when you consider their pitching depth. They recently traded Sanchez to bring in Melky Cabrera, but the offense will need a bigger boost than he can offer for them to return to their 2010 glory. The return of Buster Posey will help, but they need to add about two additional bats to make their lineup decent. The combination of aging position players and dead money on the payroll does not bode well for them acquiring the bats they need. With pitching alone, this team may have enough firepower to contend, but their margin for error is razor-thin at this point.

Padres - Falling. They have money to spend, but no one's quite sure who they'll choose to spend it on, given their numerous needs. It is tough to attract premier bats to a place that will cost them production due to the monstrous ballpark. They overachieved and put up decent offensive numbers toward the end of last year, but I'm calling it fool's gold.

Rockies - Who knows-ing. The loss of Jiminez will be felt severely this year. Pitchers with live fastballs are the only ones that can succeed in Coors Field, so of course they sent one of the best fastballs in the league off to Cleveland.... That being said, they should have a respectable amount of money to spend, and if they spend it wisely they could make the West a three team race. Check back here in a few weeks as I'm planning to do a post about how Park Effects at Coors might impact some of this year's free agents.

AL East

Blue Jays -Rising like crazy. I'm buying like crazy. They are rumored to be targeting a premier closer for this off-season, and that says a lot about their plans for this coming year. No one spends money on a closer unless they plan on contending, so watch out Red Sox and Yankees! I'm not sure that any other team has the combination of young, dynamic players and money to spend that the Blue Jays are boasting right now. Their pitching might hold them back, but I expect them to end up with at least one big-time arm before next year begins. They also have one of the most respected GMs in the game in Alex Anthopoulos, so I would guess they will spend their resources wisely.

Orioles - Stable. It honestly depends on what the Orioles choose to spend their money on, but the fact that the O's couldn't even swindle someone into taking their GM position for several weeks is a bad omen for the future. Look for a big step forward from Matt Wieters, who hopes to build on his strong second-half in 2011. J.J. Hardy is also a nice piece, but they don't have nearly enough pitching unless they do something drastic. They will need about thee times as many good arms as they have on the roster now, so the new GM Dan Duquette has some work cut out for him.

Rays - Stable. If they can conjure up enough offense, their pitching is going to be driving rival teams crazy. It's remarkable that teams like Boston and New York with huge payrolls are struggling to fill out a rotation...and resorting to dumpster dives while the Rays are deciding what to do with their wealth of pitching depth. (The answer: Keep it and use them all!!!) Look at this.... Price, Shields, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis. Young, dirt cheap, and more effective than almost every other rotation in baseball. If you live anywhere near them, go watch them play!!!

Red Sox - Way better than you think. Regardless of the reactionary dismantling of the front office and removal of the manager following the 2011 collapse, this team is about two decent players away from being one of the most complete and scary rosters in baseball. In 2011, this team was dominant for most of the season even with numerous pitching injuries, an abysmal year from Carl Crawford, an extended DL stint for Youkilis, and a lot of beer and fried chicken. They still won 90 games in the AL east. This division will be loaded with talented teams next year, but my early pick is that the Red Sox and the Blue Jays will be battling it out down the stretch for the division title.

Yankees -Falling. We'll see how far those pockets can stretch as they already have an enormous payroll, and will have several needs to fill. The issue is cropping up is the Yankees' continued loyalty to their aging stars. This is the year that Jeter, Rivera and AROD become a glaring negative for this ball club. In addition, check out their starting rotation - CC Sabathia......(cliff). That's not Cliff Lee, it's a metaphorical cliff. The Yankees need about three starters from the free agent or trade market to compete in this division next year.

AL Central

Indians - Falling. Originally, I thought Jiminez was a good addition, but in hindsight the move looks like a desperate push to win in 2011 that didn't pan out. His performance the next few years will have a lot to say about the value of this franchise. Cleveland has to be a bit nervous, and wondering if the Rockies identified his peak and sold him at just the right moment. The Tribe doesn't have much depth, so the pieces they gave up would probably have put them in a much better position for the future.

Royals - Rising. A wealth of young talent will be maturing over the next few years. I'm picking 2013 for a leap forward and a playoff run, but the Royals will be noticeably better in 2012. Butler, Hosmer, Gordon, Francouer, and Moustakas will bring plenty of thump as long as the pitching can keep up. A couple of wise free agent value plays could make this team a contender.

Tigers - Falling slightly. While Doug Fister was a great pick-up to fill out the starting rotation, I think the offense takes a step back in 2012. Austin Jackson is a leadoff hitter who can't get on base, and they will deal with the loss of Magglio Ordonez. Victor Martinez continues to battle injuries as well, so his production is never guaranteed. Unfortunately, Verlander's performance in 2011 was so incredible that even the most optimistic fans will be counting on a slight regression this year. We'll see if this is counteracted by steps forward from Porcello and Scherzer. This is still a pretty good roster, and this division looks to be up for grabs at this point.

Twins - Unfortunately stable. Morneau and Mauer both fell off the map in 2011, and Cuddyer and Kubel might depart in free agency. These losses coupled with their less than stellar rotation, and it might be another long, cold year in the outdoors. The Twins have plenty of needs with marginal or replacement players filling several spots, but they are not expected to be major players in the offseason market. I believe it was Nietzsche who wrote, "Dumpster dives and low-hanging fruit do not a playoff run make." (Again, not a real quote....)

White Sox -Falling for now. A new young manager might be a bright spot, but we'll see what they do with a lumbering, aging roster. I would like to see them add some youth and spend some money to replace the free agents who are leaving. They will need pitching in a big way....and I'm not sure they'll pay to get it this year.

AL West

Angels - Falling slightly. They have a few good pieces (Weaver, Haren, Trumbo, Bourjos) but nothing around them. Mike Trout will add some excitement, and it will be fun to watch him develop. The remaining players on the roster are either aging, light-hitting, or just aren't very good, and the Angels don't seem to have enough resources to replace the major holes they have. Also, since they will most likely be chasing the Rangers for the next few years, a rebuilding project might be in order.

Athletics - Falling. It's hard to lure free agent bats to join your team when you don't have much money and play in a tremendously difficult park to hit in. Perhaps they could sell real estate with all of that space in foul territory....and then call Prince Fielder.

Rangers - Stable. It's hard to argue with back-to-back AL championships. Not only do they have a great lineup and some good young pitching coming up, they have some money to spend in free agency courtesy of their record-setting TV deal. They might land a few decent players, or one big fish and some low cost value plays to add to their already solid roster this winter.

Seattle - Fallen? The fact that I couldn't remember who the fourth team in the AL west was, and had to look it up says more about their stock than anything I could come up with. My memory is fine.....their roster is not.

The Myth of Managerial Experience

I've heard several times already that Terry Francona is the only logical choice for the Cardinals vacancy, largely due to his major league experience and his wealth of success. Both of those are nice attributes, and both fit Francona nicely. He does have recent success.... two world series rings. He does have experience.... managing in the AL east over the course of the last 8 years, and for the Phillies in some down years prior to that. You don't turn the keys of your Ferrari over to someone who's only driven a golf cart, right?

If the question were, "Would Terry Francona be able to handle our managerial opening?" the answer would certainly be "Yes." But the fact is....the answer would be "Yes" to everyone on the Cardinals' list of candidates. We give managers far too much credit. Which of Mike Matheny, Ryne Sandberg and Super Joe McEwing would fold under the weight of a lineup decision or pitching change? Ask Charlie Manuel how difficult the job is, and he'll tell you. "I just write the names on the card."

In fairness, the manager does have some impact on a team's actual record, but the decisions that they make often even out to close to neutral over the course of a year. With the best managers, a swing of a few wins could be expected. So if we consider the best manager in baseball earns his team around one to two wins above replacement......what is an average manager worth? Furthermore, why would we pay several million dollars for the marginal difference between Terry Francona and a Joe McEwing (I'd even disagree that there would be a noticeable difference.) We value players in terms of skills and pay them accordingly on the open market, and everyone loves the idea of finding a young, cost-controlled player. Why don't we ever hear of finding a young, but capable and cost-controlled manager? Kirk Gibson was pretty good in his first year....so was Ron Roenicke. Recent history tells us that new managers can step in and do well.

A more appropriate and rarely posed question is, "What about Terry Francona made him successful during his major league experience, and is this specific to him?" The fact is, Terry Francona had some awful teams in Philadelphia. In his four years there, his best finish was 77-85...good enough for third place in the NL East.

He then went to Boston, and that's where his glory years started. In 2004, Boston won a World Series and Francona was a part of that. But a very small part. Blessed with a top 5 payroll, Theo Epstein's staff and several players who have later been implicated or have admitted to steroid use, the Red Sox finished 2nd in the AL East. This was good enough to fall 3 games back of the rival Yankees and win the wild card. Here's where it gets interesting. The Red Sox met the Yankees in the playoffs and immediately fell down 3-1 in the series, and many people in Boston (Bill Simmons included) were calling for Francona's head. His decision-making was called into question on several occasions early in the series, but that's when the players changed his legacy forever.

By storming back, beating the Yankees in the series and rolling through the World Series, the Red Sox painted Francona into a hero. The revisionist history made all of his decisions correct in hindsight, and Francona was instantly one of the elite managers in baseball about 10 games after being on his way out the door. It's funny how these things are forgotten or adjusted in people's minds. Admittedly, Francona has done well in Boston and added another WS championship a few years later before their recent collapse. But my question is, with the resources and players at his disposal, does that make him better than others on the list? Obviously Boston didn't think so....

The only thing his years of managerial experience tells me is that two storied franchises, Boston and Philadelphia had him and didn't want him. He failed to impress them, and he has therefore failed to impress me.

To revisit the Ferrari analogy.... Would you give the keys to your Ferrari to someone who has never driven a Ferrari? Or do you toss the keys to the guy who has a bunch of experience and has already wrecked two? You probably just interview both of them and make the best decision based on what you hear....

Theo Epstein: A Perfect Cub

The day that Theo Epstein was announced as the new GM for the Chicago Cubs, there was rejoicing in the streets.  He was hailed as a savior for a franchise that hasn't won a World Series in over a hundred years.  Cubs fans thought to themselves, "Things will be different now that we have the hottest name in MLB front offices."  Well, unfortunately for the North Siders, Epstein has already taken his first step in continuing the long tradition of poor decision making that has doomed the Cubs for decades.  

The obvious choice to manage the Cubs is Ryne Sandberg.  The hall of fame second basemen and Cubs legend Sanberg put his ego aside several years ago, and took a minor league managerial job with hopes to someday manage the Cubs big league squad.  He spent several years travelling on buses, staying in cheap hotels, making a small paycheck, as he worked his way up the ladder.  After several years, he won Triple-A manager of the year.  Then, in almost perfect timing, then Cubs manager Lou Pinella announced his retirement.  For once, the stars seemed to align for the Cubs, as the door was seemingly open for Cubs legend Sandberg to step in and lead the team to the promised land.  

But, wouldn't you know it, the Cubs, to everyone's bewilderment decided instead on Mike Quade (who?).  

After the failed Mike Quade experiment, the Cubs made sweeping changes, bringing in Chicago Messiah Theo Epstein to fix everything.  After dismissing Quade, Epstein had a golden opportunity to make all things right by bringing in Sandberg to manage the team.  Once again, the door seemed to be open for Sandberg.  After all, Epstein had nothing to do with choosing Quade over him.

Instead, Epstein made a Cubs decision.  Before even interviewing Sandberg, Epstein dismissed him as a candidate, preferring someone with "managerial or coaching experience at the major league level."  Good decision.  At this point, the rumored front-runners for the Cubs job are legendary household names such as Mike Maddux, Dale Sveum, and of course, Pete Mackanin.  All this from the man who brought you John Lackey at 5yrs/$82.5 mil and Daisuke Matsuzaka at 6yrs/$52 mil + $51 mil posting fee.  Here's to you, Theo Epstein, for continuing a tradition of Cubs futility.

And to Ryne Sandberg, should you become the Cardinals manager, I hope you win a championship, and then thank the   organization for bringing you what nearly two decades with the Cubs could not... A World Series ring.