What Should Your Team Do: St. Louis Cardinals

Next up in our "What Should Your Team Do?" series, the St. Louis Cardinals.  For a primer on the intended purpose of this series, see the first edition on the Boston Red Sox.  Quick confession: I mistakenly went out of order, as the Boston Red Sox will actually be picking before the Cardinals in next year's draft.  Anyhow, let's get after it.

As much as any team in baseball, the 2013 National League Champion Cardinals have a foundation in place to make it back to the World Series in 2014 and years to come.  They are in the enviable position of having a few clear problems to address and the resources (money, prospects) to address them.  Here is what the Cardinals should do this offseason:

• Let Carlos Beltran walk.  He was a great player the past two years, and has the ability to turn into "Super Beltran" in the postseason.  But the fact that he is looking for a 3-4 year deal and everyday playing time is unappealing for the Cardinals, for whom right field is not a problem spot (more on this in a moment).
• Trade for Elvis Andrus.  The Rangers have the motivation to move him with Jurickson Profar needing playing time, and several other high profile middle infield prospects waiting in the wings.  Offer to pick up the whole contract, rather than give up more players.  With money coming off the books, the Cards have money to spend.  In terms of return, a package centered around Carlos Martinez seems to make sense for both sides.  He has #1-2 starter upside, and the Cards are flush with starting pitching options.  He would keep the Rangers from having to acquire guys like Matt Garza at the deadline at high prospect cost.  For the Cardinals, Andrus becomes the shortstop for the foreseeable future, and batting leadoff, he lengthens the lineup.
• Shift Matt Carpenter to third base, and let top prospect Kolten Wong play second.  This certainly improves the infield defense, and potentially improves the offense as well.
• Hope Oscar Taveras can play better defensive center field than Jon Jay (not a high bar to jump over). Sign Chris Young as a backup centerfielder/bench bat.  He adds pop, and the ability to hit lefties, which was a problem for the Cards last year.
• Keep David Freese as "Hometown Hero" (c) and bench bat.
• Let Trevor Rosenthal start.  He wants to start, and has multiple plus pitches in addition to his fastball.  The Cards have other guys (Siegrest, Motte when healthy, Lynn) that can close.  Rosenthal is wasted in the bullpen.
• Re-sign John Axford to be a veteran presence in the bullpen/mustache aficionado.  

Here's what the lineup and rotation look like:

SS--Andrus

3B--Carpenter

LF--Holliday

RF--Craig

1B--Adams

C--Molina

CF--Taveras

2B--Wong

Pitcher's Spot

SP1: Wainwright

SP2: Wacha

SP3: Miller

SP4: Garcia

SP5: Rosenthal

What Should Your Team Do: Boston Red Sox

The day has arrived...  New material from The Hottest Stove is here!  Today begins a new series titled "What Should Your Team Do?"  That "Should" is in italics because this series is not meant to be predictive, but prescriptive.  Unfortunately, for a variety of reasons, teams don't always do what they should.  That's what we are here for; to give ideas to all of our readers that also happen to be general managers of Major League Baseball teams.

Each post will feature one MLB team, and just for the sake of some organizational structure, we will be going in reverse order of next year's draft.  That means that first up is... The Boston Red Sox!

Boston Red Sox

• This team just won the World Series, so a foundation is in place.  But that doesn't mean that they don't have work to do.  Along with players like David Ortiz getting a year older, the Red Sox have decisions to make about several significant contributors--Jacoby Ellsbury, Mike Napoli, Johnny Gomes, Stephen Drew, etc.--who are free agents.
• Re-sign Jacoby Ellsbury, Jarrod Saltalamaccia, and Mike Napoli.  All of them contributed positively on both offense and defense last year, and all are still in their athletic prime.  In addition, free agency doesn't have any better options at their respective positions.
• Let Stephen Drew walk, collect the draft pick, and let Xander Bogaerts play shortstop every day. The kid can play some ball.
• In shifting Bogaerts to short, give Middlebrooks a legitimate shot to start at third base.  He's shown potential, and any chance for this team to get younger is a positive.  
• Sign a veteran backup at first/third base like old friend Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, or Eric Chavez.
• Sign Michael Morse to function as a bench bat/platoon partner with Daniel Nava.  Johnny Gomes would be preferable in this role, but is likely to be overvalued as a free agent due to his enhanced World Series profile.  Morse is undervalued due to an injury ridden year last year.
• Move Doubront into the starting rotation.  He is a more than serviceable fifth starter.

Here's what the lineup and rotation look like:

CF--Ellsbury

RF--Victorino

2B--Pedroia

DH--Ortiz

1B--Napoli

LF--Nava

SS--Bogaerts

3B--Middlebrooks

C--Saltalamaccia

SP1: Lester

SP2: Lackey

SP3: Bucholz

SP4: Peavey

SP5: Doubront

Spring Training Do's and Don'ts

With the Grapefruit League under way, here are a few friendly reminders for navigating the beast that is spring training. These notes are applicable for fantasy baseball, reality baseball, and life in general...

Do: Pay attention to position battles and playing time (with a special emphasis on positional eligibility if you are a fantasy player.) Make sure your sleepers are set up to get regular at-bats, and watch out for platoon situations brewing!!!!

Don't: Pay attention to the stats for the first few weeks or fall in . Most pitchers are trying to locate fastballs and won't mix in many off-speed pitches until later. Veterans honestly don't care about spring training until about March 28th.... Also, younger position players typically start fast because they started workouts a week or two earlier and are looking to make a name for themselves. The fact that Brandon Allen is batting 1.000 means very little for your fantasy team. I promise.

Do: Enjoy the return of baseball after a grueling off season of .....box scores, the crack of the bat, checking out the new faces on your team...

Don't: Believe the spring hype and optimism. Everyone is in the best shape of their life. Literally everyone had corrective eye surgery. Everyone throws a new pitch, and 90% of them or a cutter or a slurve that you will never see once the real games start. Everyone is feeling ten years younger and a step quicker. Everyone will lie to your face.

Do: Pay attention to manager's statements regarding the lineup or running philosophy. If Matheny says the Cardinals are going to run more often, watch for this in spring. If Ichiro is expected to bat 3rd, watch to see if he'll stick there.

Don't: Get carried away. It's a marathon not a sprint, and most of your draft preparation should be done by this point. Don't adjust your fantasy rankings daily and the only adjustments should be injuries/questions regarding playing time as stated above. Do not fret. Sit back and relax.

Fantasy Baseball! Top Twelve Shortstops

The shortstop position seems better than it has been the last few years due to power boosts from Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, and the emergence of Starlin Castro. There's seems to be a plateau after the first three, so if you don't jump in early you would be best served waiting for value later on. Also...Hanley Ramirez might be an incredible value this year, but I personally wouldn't touch him unless he falls in my lap. He doesn't seem to care at all about playing baseball anymore...so it's hard to know how much of his talent will actually show up.

ADR	AG
1. Troy Tulowitzki	1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Jose Reyes	2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Hanley Ramirez	3. Jose Reyes
4. Starlin Castro	4. Asdrubal Cabrera
5. Jimmy Rollins	5. Jimmy Rollins
6. Asdrubal Cabrera	6. Starlin Castro
7. JJ Hardy	7. Elvis Andrus
8. Elvis Andrus	8. Alexei Ramirez
9. Derek Jeter	9. J.J. Hardy
10. Alexei Ramirez	10. Jhonny Peralta
11. Jhonny Peralta	11. Derek Jeter
12. Stephen Drew	12. Dee Gordon

"Pick to Click" Series: NL West

Diamondbacks: Justin Upton

• I know, I know... He's already clicked. But I'm dreaming of another huge step forward, and your eventual National League MVP. How does a slash line of .309/.390/.560 with about 25 stolen bases sound? Good? Good.
  

Dodgers: Kenley Jansen

• Honestly, this is everyone in the world's pick to click unless you're the mother of incumbent closer Javy Guerra. Even Guerra's mother is probably impressed by Jansen's k/9 rate from last year. For those of you who forgot....it was 16.10!
  

Giants: Madison Bumgarner

• I absolutely love his control...and 2011 peripherals don't indicate any type of fluke. 200 more solid innings...
• I expect Bumgarner to be better than Tim Lincecum in 2012. In my book, Bumgarner gets slightly better and Lincecum regresses a bit more in 2012.
  

Padres: Edinson Volquez

• Moving from a tiny ballpark to a huge ballpark will "cure what ails ya". This is especially true when you have particularly nasty stuff.
  
• Volquez had trouble throwing strikes last year. However, he has so much movement on his pitches that he could build a ton of confidence by throwing to the middle of the plate in San Diego and seeing what happens. Once he figures out that the ball stays in the yard, he's going to look a lot more like the ace everyone in Cincinnati expected. (And might make the Latos trade look pretty silly in the process.)

Rockies: Tyler Colvin

• The tough part will be getting enough plate appearances....but Tyler Colvin is sitting on a huge seaon, as soon as he ca get some regular playing time. The Coors effect will keep his average high enough so he stays in the lineup. I don't think .270 with 25 home runs is unreasonable.
  
• Here's how I see it playing out: Casey Blake gets injured right away, Cuddyer moves to 3rd, and Colvin takes the job in left and starts mashing the ball. Worst case scenario......pencil in Colvin for a big year off the bench and a starting spot next year.
  

Transaction Reaction: Prince Fielder

The Detroit Tigers paid $214 million for 9 years of mash potential and androgyny. I tried to pay an artist for a rendering of Prince wearing a Tigers uniform, but it was hard to make out with all of the purple sequins and whatnot.... so I asked the artist to stop. All that to say, I paid a guy $17 to be the artist who was formerly going to draw Prince.

• This signing seems like a great story, right? Prince Fielder returns to Detroit where his father Cecil played, and where he grew up taking batting practice as a young boy. Quite a fairy tale. Here's the real story....all that happened, AND THEN his dad started gambling and didn't stop until he had run through his entire career's major league earnings and started stealing from Prince later in life. The two are not on speaking terms, so it strikes me as odd that Prince would want to draw these comparisons. However, I can think of 214 million reasons he might bury the hatchet and embrace his father's legacy in Detroit.
• At least from the Tiger's perspective it makes sense, right? Nope. In baseball, the rosters have only enough room for MAYBE two overweight players on each team, assuming they are both good enough to play regularly. The Detroit Tigers already have THREE other fatties under team control for two years or more, and all of them are good enough to play everyday. Victor Martinez is a DH who is injured this year, but will be paid handsomely for 2012 and 2013 when he comes back healthy. Alex Avila is a good young player, but one that is big enough that he can only play catcher or DH. Miguel Cabrera is notorious for his incredible performance and his weight. He can only reasonably play first. (Breaking news: The Tigers have just said Miguel Cabrera will be moved to third base to make room for Prince. Just for context, Miguel was very bad at first base....which is approximately 50 times easier and less athletic than third base.)
  
• So, it appears that the Tigers have dramatically added to their offense by subtracting from their defense in TWO different spots (1st base and 3rd base, because Prince is even worse than Cabrera!) Their reward for this maneuver is a bill for $214 million dollars, and a very pissed off Justin Verlander. This honestly might end up being the worst defensive infield ever created.
  
• Lastly, if the Tigers are expecting Prince to play baseball similar to how his father used to, wouldn't they pay attention to how his father aged? Cecil was a beast until age 32 when he hit 39 home runs, and then his production fell off a cliff. He was so terrible that he was out of baseball completely by age 34. Fangraphs ran an article in October regarding how "heavy" players age. Prince is 27 now, and the results of the article definitely do not support a 9-year deal. According to the Fangraphs analysis, heavy players peak at age 23 or 24 and decline quickly. By the age of 31-32, most heavy sluggers have lost more than 30% of their production.... At the age of 33, Prince will still have 4 years left on his deal and the Tigers will owe him approximately $100 million dollars. Do you know how many Raspberry Berets that could buy???? This is an exciting deal for Tigers fans for 2012....but let's check back with them in 2017.
  

Fantasy Baseball! Top Twelve Overall

Good morning, friends. Recently, ADR and I were talking about the upcoming 2012 fantasy baseball season (we both love fantasy baseball, by the way), and were discussing some stupid rankings given by the so-called fantasy baseball "experts." In the course of our conversation, we decided that we should be fantasy "experts," and just like that, it happened. We are now fantasy baseball "experts." (Seriously... I think that's all it takes...) In fact, we are already in the process of having "Fantasy Baseball Expert" business cards printed up. Anyhow, given our new expert status, ADR and I will be posting fantasy baseball articles in addition to our normal baseball commentary.

More specifically, beginning this week we will releasing our series of "Top Twelves," as we give first our Top Twelve overall for 2012, and then our position-by-position top twelves, all of which will be a part of our Hottest Stove 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. (We are going with twelve, by the way, because that should cover both ten and twelve team leagues.)

Now, if for some reason you are not into fantasy baseball (which, I think, you really should be...), no need to fret, because in addition to our fantasy baseball content, we will be continuing with our "Pick to Click" Series, and regular baseball musings.

With all that being said, here are our Top Twelve Overall Rankings:

ADR	AG
1. Matt Kemp	1. Jose Bautista
2. Jose Bautista	2. Matt Kemp
3. Albert Pujols	3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Troy Tulowitzki	4. Adrian Gonzalez
5. Miguel Cabrera	5. Albert Pujols
6. Adrian Gonzalez	6. Troy Tulowitzki
	(This is where Ryan Braun goes for me if he beats the P.E.D. rap)
7. Justin Upton	7. Evan Longoria
8. Curtis Granderson	8. Justin Upton
9. Prince Fielder	9. Prince Fielder (Because he hasn’t signed yet, this is a team-neutral ranking. If he signs with Texas, I bump him up to #3. If he signs with Seattle, I drop him out of the Top 12.)
10. Robinson Cano	10. Roy Halladay
11. Matt Holliday	11. Joey Votto
12. Jose Reyes	12. Robinson Cano

A Few Quick Comments: People can always squabble with first round orders, but frankly its hard to miss with any of these guys. That's why they are being taken in the first round of fantasy drafts. There few notable differences between ADR and I. While we agree on the first two guys (Bautista and Kemp), we have them flip-flopped. Pujols, who has long been #1 overall has dropped in both of our rankings. Granderson, Holliday, and Reyes, whom ADR has in his Top Twelve, do not appear in mine. In their place, I have Longoria, Halladay--the only pitcher in either Top Twelve, and Votto. The only spot that we both have exactly the same is the Purple Rain at #9.

By the way, either of us are happy to defend our respective rankings in the comments section below. Up next, the Top Twelve Catchers!

"Pick to Click" Series: NL Central UPDATE

Back in the original NL Central edition post of our "Pick to Click" Series, begrudgingly picked Fernando Martinez as my Pick to Click for the Houston Astros, not because I'm excited about him, but because I was less not-excited about him than anyone else on the team (follow the grammar there?). Anyway, since the original post, the Houston Astros have added a free agent who is now my Pick to Click for the team. Yep, that's right. Jack Cust. Cust, built in the pre-2011 Adam Dunn mode, is the definition of a "Three True Outcomes" player (strikeout, walk, or home run). He is not going to play good defense, he is not going to hit for a nice average, or steal bases. He probably won't do much of anything that resembles athleticism. But Cust has one worthwhile skill, and that is dropping bombs (Hitting home runs, I mean. No need to alert the local authorities). Up until this season, Cust has nearly his entire career in three of the worst hitters' parks in the game--San Diego, Oakland, and Seattle. But this year, he will be playing his home games in Minuit Maid Park, a stadium aptly nicknamed "The Juice Box" because of its small size. For this reason, while Jack may not be winning MVP awards or making All-Star teams, or frankly maybe not even really helping his team win, I do think that if he is given a full season worth of at-bats, he is going to hit 25+ dingers for the anemic Astros offense. Jack Cust... Pick to Click!

Joel Zumaya... Play "Free Bird!"

Earlier this week, the Minnesota Twins signed reliever Joel Zumaya to one-year contract worth $800k, but could be worth $1.7 million if certain incentives have been reached.  The signing passed with relatively little fanfare, and with good reason.  Zumaya hasn't been healthy since 2010, and he was never as dominant as he was in his 2006 rookie season.  His main weapon was always his 100 mph+ fastball, and he is reportedly now being clocked between 92-94--still fast, but not the same.  Now certainly Joel could ramp that speed back up during the course of the season, but even if he performs at a high level, I don't think it will drastically change the mediocre outlook for the Twins in 2012.

So why write about this signing?  Because it reminds me of one of my favorite sports stories of all time.  Back in the 2006 American League Championships Series, Zumaya had to be sidelined for a couple games because of forearm soreness.  Many figured the soreness was understandable, even expected, given how hard Zumaya threw.  But doctors were somewhat befuddled, because the injury to Zumaya was more consistent with injuries they regularly saw with musicians that play the guitar.  That's when Zumaya admitted his love/addiction to the video game, Guitar Hero... Which doctors said explained the injury perfectly.  Awesome.  

Below you can find a picture formerly posted on Zumaya's Facebook page (which it appears he has since deleted), attesting to his devotion to the game, and forever reminding me of how hard Joel rocks...

"Pick to Click" Series: NL Central

Good day, Hot-Stovers!  Today, we are beginning a new series we are calling the "Pick to Click" series.  We will be looking at every team and naming a player that is our "pick to click."  When we say that we think a player is going to "click," what we mean is that we think he is going to have everything fall into place in 2012 for a season of unexpected, and perhaps unprecedented, success.  (By the way, if you are fantasy baseball enthusiasts, like we are, you might term these guys as "sleepers"... Do with the info what you will.)

As we are wont to do, ADR and I will be going division by division, starting today with the National League Central.  Please, feel free to offer your own "pick to clicks" for the division in the comments below.  Without further ado...

St. Louis Cardinals

• Pick to Click--Tyler Greene
• I have been personally touting the Greene Lantern (it will catch on... just wait... I've already got the t-shirts printed up...) for years now.  Originally drafted in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft, a first round loaded with talent, Greene was originally slotted to take over at shortstop for David Eckstein.  However, while producing at the minor league level, Greene has never taken advantage of his short stints at the majors.  Many have been suspicious that he struggled under the iron fist of pro-crusty-veteran former manager, Tony LaRussa.  But, as you may have heard, Tony retired, and has been replaced by a more young-guy-friendly Mike Matheny.  Both Matheny and GM John Mozeliak have verbally praised Greene's minor league success (.323/.422/.579 slash line last year at triple-A... Yikes!)  and have expressed a desire to see him win the starting second base job for the Cards in 2012.   Tyler Greene... Pick to click!

Cincinnati Reds

• Pick to Click--Jay Bruce
• I know, I know.  You are saying that Jay Bruce kinda already clicked last year.  But I'm expecting even higher levels of clicktitude this year.  Like .300+ batting average and 40+ home runs clicking.  Bruce plays in a hitter-friendly stadium, and in a lineup where pitchers will be focused more on getting out Joey Votto.  Oh, and by the way, while it feels like he has been around for a while, Bruce is still only 24 years old.  Do you know who baseball-reference.com lists as the most comparable hitter through age 24?  Reggie Jackson.  Yep.  Jay Bruce... Pick to click!

Milwaukee Brewers

• Pick to Click--Matt Gamel
• Matt Gamel has displayed some serious mash in his minor league career, but many have labelled him a Quad-A player after his hitting prowess has seemingly not translated to the bigs.  If you look at his major league career, however, he really has not gotten an extended look with every day playing time.  Until this year, that is.  With the Purple Rain departing, the Brewers seem content to hand the first base gig to Gamel, who is coming off a Triple-A season in which he batted .310 with 28 home runs and a .540 slugging percentage.  I don't think he will be a world-beater, but I bet he has a really solid season.  Matt Gamel... Pick to click!

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Pick to Click--Erik Bedard
• Hey, remember when Erik Bedard was awesome?  Back when he was traded for Adam (non-Pacman) Jones and four other players?  Back when he was arguably the second best starter in fantasy baseball after Johan Santana?  The Pirates do.  And so do I.  Erik Bedard... Pick to click!

Chicago Cubs

• Pick to Click--Ian Stewart
• I also thought about Bryan LaHair or Anthony Rizzo in this spot, but ultimately I settled on Ian Stewart.  Back when Stewart was still a prospect in the Rockies organization, I read an article by one of the Colorado sportswriters (nice citation form, right?) in which the author explained that at the time the Rockies would be okay with trading away Matt Holliday because they were confident that Ian Stewart would be able to fill his offensive void.  Pretty high expectations, but at the time the Colorado front office must have felt they were justified.  I'm betting that a change of scenery will be just what the doctor ordered for Stewart.  Ian Stewart... Pick to click!

Houston Astros (soon to be of the AL West)

• Pick to Click--Gross... Do I have to pick someone from the Astros?  Really?  Alright... Hmmm... I guess I'll go with... Fernando Martinez
• This team is absolutely devoid of anything exciting or hope-worthy.  So devoid that the guy I decided to (was forced to) pick is a guy the Mets just decided to cut.  Martinez, still only 23 years old, has long been on top prospect lists as a guy who has flashed impressive power rates, but just has not been able to stay healthy.  So I'm betting on him (by default) to finally start to live up to some of his potential with a change of scenery.  His new home with the Astros takes him from a bad hitters park in New York to a great one in Houston.  And the only thing standing between him and winning a starting job with the Astros is perhaps the worst starting outfield of all time, in Martinez, Schafer, and Bogusevic.  Fernando Martinez... Pick to click (sorta...)

MLB Power Ranking: January 16

Time for our bi-monthly MLB Power Ranking update. With every rise or drop of a team, we will offer a brief explanation for the change.   Still curious to see where the Purple Rain will land... As always, feel free to squabble in the comments below! 

1. New York Yankees (Up from #4. In one day, the Yankees dramatically improved their chances by drastically improving their rotation, turning what was a weakness into a strength.  Prior to their recent moves, beyond Sabathia, the rotation was brutal [see: "The Yankees' Inexplicable Dearth of Starting Pitching"].  By adding Pineda and Kuroda as their #2/#3 starters, the Yankees have turned Nova into their #4 and now have an open competition between Hughes/Burnett/Garcia for the #5 spot. [Just noticed this oddity, but if Garcia wins the job, all five starter will have last names that end with "A."])  
2. Texas Rangers (Up from #3.  This ranking comes with the assumption that the Rangers will eventually actually sign Yu Darvish.  Frankly, its also a lot about my present feelings on the Red Sox, who haven't necessarily yet addressed some question marks in the rotation.  I'm also very uneasy about Bobby Valentine, who looks like he could be part of sci-fi show in which all the figures in a wax museum come to life.)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. St. Louis Cardinals 
5. Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim)
6. Philadelphia Phillies
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Tampa Bay Rays
9. Toronto Blue Jays
10. Cincinnati Reds
11. Atlanta Braves
12. Washington Nationals
13. Detroit Tigers (Down from #8.  No major changes with the Tigers.  I just looked at their roster and said, "Bleah...") 
14. Cleveland Indians
15. Colorado Rockies
16. San Francisco Giants
17. Chicago White Sox
18. Minnesota Twins
19. Milwaukee Brewers
20. Miami Marlins (Down from #17.  Yep, this drop comes because of the addition of Carlos Zambrano, who actually represents negative vale.  In my mind, his acquisition signals that the Marlins aren't really trying to win [see: "The 2012 Miami Marlins: My New Favorite Reality TV Show"])
21. Kansas City Royals
22. Los Angeles Dodgers
23. Chicago Cubs (Up from #26.  As much as I hate to say it, Theo Epstein has made some great [in a couple cases, very one-sided] moves.  He was able to acquire a potential franchise first baseman in Anthony Rizzo for nothing more than a hard-throwing reliever [see: "Transaction Reaction: Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner"] somehow able to get rid of Carlos Zambrano without the involvement of the mob.  By the way, I can't wait until everybody in the world jumps on the Cubs bandwagon when they start showing signs of life.  Just wait, being a Cubs fan will become painfully trendy, a-la being a Red Sox fan in 2004.) 
24. Seattle Mariners (Up from #25.  Jesus Montero should offer some long-term mash on a team starving for offense.  But they also lost their #2 starter in the trade with the Yankees, so not a huge jump in the power rankings.  This move up also represents a drop for the Padres who were on the wrong end of the Rizzo for Cashner swap.)
25. Pittsburgh Pirates
26. San Diego Padres 
27. New York Mets
28. Baltimore Orioles
29. Houston Astros
30. Oakland Athletics (If there was a way for me to drop the A's further, I would.  They are brutal! Maybe they can bring Scott Hatteberg out of retirement.)

The True Cost of Luxury

An interesting thing happens when a big market team decides to overpay for a free agent. It starts a cycle in which the team has to continue paying for the same mistake over and over again. This is....the more painful, yet unwritten luxury tax. Often, these factors are glossed over because these teams can use their seemingly unlimited resources to cover their tracks, but once a team is labeled as a "free agent big spender" the following problems blossom immediately:

1) By injecting money into your own division with a free agent signing, you are elevating the playing field for all of your competitors and forcing them to spend big.
This is seemingly unavoidable if you want to be successful, but each free agent signing makes the cost of future acquisitions and the cost of a win more expensive moving forward. This hike in cost moving forward occurs regardless of whether or not your big time free agent acquisition produces like you expected him to. For example, the signings of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson were obviously very expensive, but if the Rangers then signed Prince Fielder and/or Yu Darvish to counter...a large portion of the value to the Angels was just lost. To further this point, if any of the players involved underachieves, the result is a huge cost AND a net loss in performance relative to your competitors.

2) Farewell to the home town discount.
Every team has core players, and these players expect to be treated as such. Therefore, when a core player sees his team lure a free agent to town with a big contract, he sees this as the floor for his own negotiations (assuming relative talent). Teams such as Tampa or Oakland do have a small amount of leverage in that, they can point to the books and say, "If you wish to stay, here is the highest amount we can reasonably pay you." Although this is a false ceiling, it does tend to ground negotiations and forces the player to weigh their drive to achieve a big contract against staying in a place they enjoy. If the player leaves, small market club can often absorb the PR backlash since the public knows of the club's financial limitations. This is even sometimes directed back at the player with accusations of greed. Without this false ceiling, the club ALWAYS loses the PR battle. For example, no one in their right mind would pay Jeter as much as his most recent contract was worth. However, the Yankees were stuck between fans romanticizing Jeter's past performance and Jeter's knowledge of their endless revenue streams. This same factor assisted in pushing Nomar Garciaparra out the door in 2004 because the Red Sox payroll was going sky-high, just as Nomar's performance was in decline. The reports were that the sides weren't close on an extension, so the Sox rightfully opted to make a trade to bring in Orlando Cabrera.

3) Relativity.
Again touching on the Yankees, any free agent pitcher will certainly have New York's history of spending in mind. Negotiations from the player's perspective will certainly open with a favorable comparison. Starting pitcher? "Well I'm THIS much better than AJ Burnett, and you gave him 5 years and 86.5 million. Let's start at 5 years and $110 million" Mediocre relief pitcher? "Well I'm about the same as your ineffective reliever Rafael Soriano, so I'll just take the 3 years, 30 million." Eek. You can see how that adds up quickly.

These three problems never wear off, and they actually accelerate over time. The value of each dollar spent decreases each offseason, because agents and players alike study these trends and use them to their advantage. This is the reason that Scott Boras and Dan Lozano intentionally draw the Phillies, Red Sox, Cubs or Yankees into every single negotiation. These agents have recognized that for these teams to get a dollar's worth of production, they are required to pay their client closer to $1.50.

Editor's note: I'm wondering if the restraint shown by the Yankees and Red Sox so far this offseason are cursory attempts to break this cycle. Contrarily, the Phillies' offseason spending thus far has shown this inflation pretty vividly (Overpay for an incumbent shortstop? check. Dramatically overpay for a closer? check.)

Hall of Fame Apathy

It was announced today that Barry Larkin was elected to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, receiving 86% of the votes, easily clearing the required 75% needed for election.  I'll be honest in saying that sadly, I'm kind of apathetic about the whole thing.  When I was a kid, the Hall of Fame election used to be something of mythological proportions.  The Hall of Fame was a place containing the names of men who transcended beyond normal greatness to the level of legendary.  And the great thing about baseball history is that statistics have been so meticulously kept over the years that certain benchmarks developed, statistical heights when reached, secured your place in baseball lore: 500 home runs, 3,000 hits, 300 wins, etc.  

So where did the magic go?  I think it disappeared with the cynicism of the steroid age.  A whole generation of players not only met those historical benchmarks, but shattered long-held records in the process.  But a cloud hangs over the whole era.  Some players were caught, some confessed, but even the others seem to be stained with the guilt of their peers.  And the greatest players of the generation--McGwire, Sosa, Bonds, Clemens, Rodriguez--will forever remain in some sort of baseball limbo, their names in the record books, but with an accusatory asterisk to the right, always.  I know that I'm not the first person to ever write about the tragedy of the steroid era, nor will I be the  last, but it makes me particularly sad on a day like today.  

Twelve Bold MLB Predictions for 2012

As the new year dawns, and we are still a month plus away from pitchers and catchers reporting for spring training, I wanted to throw out twelve bold predictions for the 2012 MLB season.  For accountability's sake, I will be sure to revisit these after the season.

1. The St. Louis Cardinals will be the first repeat world champions since the Yankees three-peated it in 1998-2000. 
2. Albert Pujols, however, will not be participating in the 2012 playoffs.
3. Neither will the New York Yankees.
4. Adam Dunn will lead the majors in home runs.  And then he will pull a tree out of the ground with his bare hands.
5. Last year's American League Cy Young winner, Justin Verlander will have a rough season, and will disappoint zillions of fantasy general managers.  And his actual general manager.
6. Only a year removed from Tommy John surgery, Adam Wainwright will surprise everyone by winning not only Comeback Player of the Year, but the National League Cy Young Award to boot.
7. With Pujols now out of the National League, Matt Kemp will be the first player to win the offensive triple crown since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 (the first national leaguer since Joe Medwick in 1937!)
8. With a highly-combustible manager, a quickly blooming controversy over the shortstop position, and numerous young, social media loving players, The Miami Marlins will provide excellent off-the-field entertainment value throughout the season.
9. The surprise team of the year will be the Kansas City Royals who will challenge for the American League Central division title.
10. Joe Mauer will stay healthy for the entire 2012, and will win the American League batting title. 
11. Ryan Howard, on the other hand, will not play a game before June.
12. With the soon advent of more interleague play, Bud Selig will finally do away with the Designated Hitter (if I keep saying it, maybe it will happen...)

MLB Power Ranking: January 1

Happy New Year to all of our "Hottest Stovers" (newly coined term)!  Starting today, on January 1st, we will be updating our MLB Power Rankings on the first and fifteenth of every month.  With every rise or drop of a team, we will offer a brief explanation for the change.  Not much has happened since we last ranked the teams in December, so there won't be a whole lot of drastic changes made.  As always, feel free to squabble in the comments below!

1. Boston Red Sox
2. Texas Rangers
3. St. Louis Cardinals (Up from #5.  The addition of Carlos Beltran coupled with the positive rehab news from Adam Wainwright gives this team a boost.  Plus, the Yankees really only have one good starting pitcher right now, and don't seem to be doing anything to change that fact. [see "The Yankees' Inexplicable Dearth of Starting Pitching" article])
4. New York Yankees
5. Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim)
6. Philadelphia Phillies
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Detroit Tigers
9. Tampa Bay Rays
10. Toronto Blue Jays
11. Cincinnati Reds (Up from #12.  Change due to Mat Latos acquisition.  He's a great pitcher, but he's also going from one of the best pitcher's parks to one of the worst.)
12. Atlanta Braves
13. Washington Nationals (Up from #17.  I don't think that the Nationals acquisition of Gio Gonzalez is a complete game-changer of a move, but it caused me to re-evaluate their roster and commitment to winning now.  Wouldn't be surprised to see the Purple Rain land here as well.)
14. Cleveland Indians
15. Colorado Rockies
16. San Francisco Giants
17. Miami Marlins
18. Chicago White Sox
19. Minnesota Twins
20. Milwaukee Brewers
21. Kansas City Royals
22. Los Angeles Dodgers
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
24. San Diego Padres (Up from #26.  Slight bump because of Carlos Quentin acquisition.  Still a team with a lot of holes.  Just one less, now.)
25. Seattle Mariners
26. Chicago Cubs
27. New York Mets
28. Baltimore Orioles
29. Houston Astros
30. Oakland Athletics

The All "He's Making What?!?!" Team

With all of the long-term, big money deals being thrown around, the question that is always asked is: "How will this deal look in its final years?"  This is ultimately the reason that the St. Louis Cardinals took a pass on re-signing Albert Pujols.  They probably had no issues at all paying him $25 million for the next several years, when he would likely still be performing in his prime.  But with a payroll hovering around $100 million, the Cardinals brass just couldn't stomach the thought of paying a quarter of their payroll to a guy ages 39-42, when there is no way that he could produce $25 million worth of value on the field.

That fear is the spirit of what The All "He's Making What?!?!" Team is all about.  This is a team comprised of the players at each position who will be the most grossly overpaid in 2012 with relation to their expected performance.  Feel free to submit your own nominees if you see someone not on this list.  (All salary information found on Cot's Baseball Contracts)

Catcher-- Joe Mauer ($23 Million)  I hate to put Joe on this list, because I really like him as a player, but $23 million for an oft-injured catcher who will likely play a lot of first base and designated hitter, and has only cracked 20 home runs once?

First Base--Ryan Howard ($20 million)  Howard's numbers have dropped in nearly every major statistical category in recent years.  He is being paid to put up big home run numbers, but hasn't topped 33 in the last two years.

Second Base--Brian Roberts ($10 Million) Roberts has only hit over .300 once in his career (2005), and the last two years he has averaged playing 49 games per season.  He does steal a few bases, but has he has gotten older, his speed has decreased along with his stolen base totals.  Oh, and his slash line last year looked like this: .221/.273/.331

Third Base--Alex Rodriguez ($29 Million) I thought about Chipper Jones ($13 million) here because of his injury-prone-ness, but look at how much A-Rod is making!  There is no way that he will be worth $29 million in 2012.  Unless he figures out a way to "enhance his performance" again...

Shortstop--Derek Jeter ($16 million) Yep, the Yankees round out the left side of the infield here.  I know what you are thinking.  "But he's Derek Jeter!  And he's a bargain compared to Alex Rodriguez!"  I suppose there is some inherent value to his icon status for the Yankees.  But strip away all of that, and you know what I call a poor defensive shortstop who will hit around .300 and steal a few bases?  Ryan Theriot.

Outfield #1--Vernon Wells ($21 million) This was long thought to be the worst, most un-tradable contract in baseball history.  But then Blue Jays GM Alex Anthropolous traded it.  And got Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera in retern.  What?!?!

Outfield #2-- Alfonso Soriano ($18 million)  Sure he'll still pop 20-25 home runs, but so will most left fielders. Soriano's average has hovered right around .250 the last several years, and he has managed to make playing left field look like rocket science.

Outfield #3--Jason Bay ($16 million) A lot of directions we could go here with this last outfield spot, like Carlos Lee ($18.5 million), Jason Werth ($13 million), Torii Hunter ($18 million).  But Jason Bay has been genuinely worthless to the Mets.  Bay, a poor defensive outfielder, was signed to add some mash to the Mets lineup, but since arriving in New York, he has averaged 9 home runs a year and a .388 slugging percentage.

Designated Hitter-- Adam Dunn ($14 million) There were high expectations for Dunn, a perennial 40 home run guy, when he came to the White Sox.  Unfortunately, last year he hit 11 home runs with a .159 batting average.  Yikes.

Lots of good choices for the starting rotation, but we have selected five pitchers who have mixed their unbearably high salaries with poor performance and questionable health (mental health, in the Big Z's case).   Congratulations, guys!

Starting Pitcher #1--AJ Burnett ($16.5 million)

Starting Pitcher #2--Barry Zito ($19 million)

Starting Pitcher #3--Carlos Zambrano ($18 million)

Starting Pitcher #4--Jake Peavy ($17 million)

Starting Pitcher #5--Derek Lowe ($15 million)

For what it is worth, we have mercifully left off the list guys who will likely be earning big dollars to not pitch because of injury (Johan Santana-$24 million, John Lackey-$15.25 million).

Relief Pitcher--Rafael Soriano ($11 million) Soriano has been a decent closer in his career, and his $11 million seems to fit the (crazy) market for closers.  Except he is not the Yankees closer.  He is being paid $11 million to set up for Mariano Rivera.  Pretty expensive bullpen arm, if you ask me.

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So, if you were counting, there are three teams with multiple players on this list: The Yankees (4), The White Sox (2), and The Cubs (2)