"Pick to Click" Series: NL West

Diamondbacks: Justin Upton

• I know, I know... He's already clicked. But I'm dreaming of another huge step forward, and your eventual National League MVP. How does a slash line of .309/.390/.560 with about 25 stolen bases sound? Good? Good.
  

Dodgers: Kenley Jansen

• Honestly, this is everyone in the world's pick to click unless you're the mother of incumbent closer Javy Guerra. Even Guerra's mother is probably impressed by Jansen's k/9 rate from last year. For those of you who forgot....it was 16.10!
  

Giants: Madison Bumgarner

• I absolutely love his control...and 2011 peripherals don't indicate any type of fluke. 200 more solid innings...
• I expect Bumgarner to be better than Tim Lincecum in 2012. In my book, Bumgarner gets slightly better and Lincecum regresses a bit more in 2012.
  

Padres: Edinson Volquez

• Moving from a tiny ballpark to a huge ballpark will "cure what ails ya". This is especially true when you have particularly nasty stuff.
  
• Volquez had trouble throwing strikes last year. However, he has so much movement on his pitches that he could build a ton of confidence by throwing to the middle of the plate in San Diego and seeing what happens. Once he figures out that the ball stays in the yard, he's going to look a lot more like the ace everyone in Cincinnati expected. (And might make the Latos trade look pretty silly in the process.)

Rockies: Tyler Colvin

• The tough part will be getting enough plate appearances....but Tyler Colvin is sitting on a huge seaon, as soon as he ca get some regular playing time. The Coors effect will keep his average high enough so he stays in the lineup. I don't think .270 with 25 home runs is unreasonable.
  
• Here's how I see it playing out: Casey Blake gets injured right away, Cuddyer moves to 3rd, and Colvin takes the job in left and starts mashing the ball. Worst case scenario......pencil in Colvin for a big year off the bench and a starting spot next year.
  

Transaction Reaction: Mat Latos for Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, et al

The San Diego Padres will send Mat Latos to the Cincinnati Reds. In return, the Reds will surrender Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, Brad Boxberger, and Yasmil Grandal.

• With this move, the Cincinnati Reds look poised for a strong run in 2011. With the uncertainty surrounding the rest of the NL Central, kudos to the Reds front office for making a strong move. In Latos, they receive a very young pitcher (24 years old) with #1 or high #2 status. They've been searching for a #1 starter for a few years, and it seems they've finally found their guy.
• From the Padres perspective, the deal also seems fair. The addition of Edinson Volquez might make this a "steal" due to his potential, but he looks uncertain at this point. Perhaps the larger park will finally give Volquez the confidence to go right at hitters and use his terrific movement to his advantage, rather than walking batters. Yonder Alonso is another player with very high upside as we saw last year, but that comes with a number of question marks in his own right. Alonso combines tremendous power, porous defense and some curious minor league stats which will make this deal interesting for years to come.
• The fact that the Padres got a few extra pieces shows the Reds' urgency in my opinion. (Boxberger and Grandal offer A LOT more than just throw-ins). Although they gave up a bunch of talent, the uncertain state of the NL central makes this a great deal for both sides. This will definitely be a trade that will, like so many others, be a whole lot easier to evaluate with the benefit of hindsight. I'll meet you for coffee in 2016 and we'll talk it over.

Additional note: Some Padres' insiders have mentioned the mental make-up of Latos as a source of concern, so we'll see how well he handles the transition from a huge park to a tiny one. However, at 24 years old there's plenty of time to mature.