"Pick to Click" Series: NL East

Pick to click! How about some NL East love?

Braves

• Pick to click - Jason Heyward
• Never underestimate the power of a much-hyped prospect that everyone writes off as a bust too early. As a 20 year old rookie, Heyward put up an on-base percentage of .393 and an OPS of .839. A huge bounce back candidate....HUGE.

Marlins

• Pick to click - Logan Morrison
• All of the crazy players will probably prosper under Ozzie... so logically the craziest will prosper the most. In a clubhouse full of candidates, I'm singling out Logan Morrison as the most crazy. (However, we excluded Carlos Zambrano because I'm expecting him to get arrested for stabbing someone by about mid-May. If not for his propensity for stabbing, he would have been picked to click.)
  

Mets

• Pick to click - Johan Sant....just kidding. Ike Davis
• Davis finished the year strong after returning from injury, but it will be interesting to see what he is capable of if given another full major league season. His rookie season in 2010 looked good, last year was essentially lost, so we'll see how he bounces back. I'm projecting around 30 home runs even in the middle of a terrible lineup.
• (Seriously though, the only clicking for Johan Santana is the sound his arm makes when he tries to throw a baseball.)

Nationals

• Pick to click - Prince Fielder
• Let's not get hung up on the details like, "He hasn't signed with them yet." or "His body mass index is close to 50." or "They created a third type of diabetes when he broke into the majors in 2005." (Which is true, by the way....look it up.)
• Trust me. Prince will sign with the Nationals, and their lineup will look excellent with him in the middle. He will click. They will click. It's suddenly a pretty deep lineup - Espinosa, Zimmerman, Fielder, Morse, Ramos, Werth etc.
• Prince will also be featured in our upcoming series "Picks to Stay Thick." Also in that series, we'll give a nod to Pablo Sandoval and relievers Ray King and Dennys Reyes. That's Dennys. Like the restaurant.

Phillies

• Pick to click -John Mayberry, Jr. and/or Dominic Brown
• Both have the potential to be productive everyday players. Mayberry was a good offensive player in a limited role last year, and thus far Brown has been underwhelming in his brief time in the majors. The injury to Howard will give one of these players an opportunity to get regular at bats, and there might also be a spot in the outfield if they both start playing well since no one wants to see Laynce Nix out there every day. Double pick to click!

The 2012 Miami Marlins: My New Favorite Reality TV Show

When I first heard the news yesterday that the Miami Marlins had acquired Carlos Zambrano via a trade, I thought they had lost their collective mind.  Over the past number of seasons, his craziness has proven to be a cancer for the Chicago Cubs, and oh, by the way, he doesn't really pitch well anymore either.

But then it hit me, and I saw the brilliance of what the Marlins are doing.    Somebody in the front office has realized that even more than winning, the one thing that attracts viewers is a crazy train-wreck of explosive personalities.  All you have to do is look at the more popular reality shows (The Bachelor/Bachelorette, Jersey Shore, Hell's Kitchen, etc.) to see that this is the case.  As human beings, we are attracted to dysfunction.  And the Marlins get this.

So you see, they really aren't trying to win, per se.  What they are more interested in is ratings.  For this reason, they have put together one of the most potentially combustible situations in baseball history with a high-strung, emotional manager in Ozzie Guillen, two prideful high-priced superstars who both play the same position, a left fielder (@LoMoMarlins) who will be on hand to tweet it all to the watching world, and now, Carlos Zambrano, one of the most mentally unstable pitchers of all time.  Brilliant.

So what are the next moves for the Marlins?  Perhaps adding another expensive diva who also happens to play shortstop?  Sign Milton Bradly and/or Manny Ramirez to come off the bench?  Trade for Nyjer Morgan to play centerfield?  Hire Jose Canseco as a "strength and conditioning coach?"  He certainly already has the reality show street cred.  

Should be a lot of fun, and I can't wait to watch!  Which is exactly what the Marlins want to hear. 

"If I Were General Manager..." Series: NL East

Atlanta Braves

• Assuming they can get over the trauma of one of the biggest collapses in baseball history, the Braves are actually in pretty good shape.  Lots of talented youth and not a lot of holes.
• With Tyler Pastornicky slotted in to start at shortstop, look for a veteran backup in case he struggles.  Guys like Nick Punto, Jack Wilson, Ronny Cedeno all fit the bill.
• Keep Martin Prado around, with the plan of having him and Uggla split second/third base when Chipper inevitably retires/gets hurt.
• Add some mash potential by signing a corner outfielder.  These guys are easily found this offseason--Josh Willingham, Ryan Ludwick, Luke Scott, Michael Cuddyer, Carlos Beltran.
• Keep rotation intact for now.  That means the top four guys (Hudson, Hanson, Jurjjens, Beachy), plus whichever young stud grabs a hold of the fifth spot.  Jurjjens and Hanson have both been fairly fragile, and will need fill-ins.  Use this year to figure out which of the prospects are "boom" and which are "bust."  Then trade those who are "bust" before anyone else realizes they are not that good. 
• Also, make sure to frequently tell Craig Kimbrall that he is still really good.

Philadelphia Phillies

• The Phils have a lot of money committed to guys who are about to get really old, really fast.  With that in mind, the strategy is do whatever we can to "win now" without getting rid of any young players.
• Go hard after Michael Cuddyer.  He can fill in for Howard while he is hurt, and can then start in a corner outfield spot when Howard returns.  Perfect fit.
• In the theme of winning now, while going younger, look into trading with the Padres for Chase Headley (27) to take Polanco's spot at third.  Headley's power has always been suppressed, but in the Philly's park, that power will be exaggerated.  Polanco then becomes a utility infielder
• Do whatever possible to dump Joe Blanton's salary, and replace with someone much cheaper (Paul Maholm? Zach Duke?)
• Re-sign Jimmy Rollins, but not to a five-year deal.  Preferably three.  Then tell him to make a  guarantee about the Phillies winning the World Series.

Miami Marlins

• Agree to a bunch of outrageous free-agent contracts with big name players that will excite fan base.
• Sell season tickets to excited fan base.
• Before first game of season, put a big "Closed Until Further Notice" sign on front of new stadium, and disappear with season ticket-holder money to remote tropical island. 

New York Mets

• The outlook is not good for this year, or the next couple years.  That means full rebuilding mode.
• Trade David Wright for the best collection of prospects that is offered.
• Trade anything else of value (Jason Bay, Mike Pelfrey) for prospects.
• Convince Brian Cashman that Johan Santana is healthy, and then trade him to the Yankees.
• Hang onto Ike Davis as the interim "face of the franchise."  Cash in on as many Ike Davis bobblehead nights as possible.

Washington Nationals

• Looking at the National's roster on paper makes me think that this is a team that could surprise some people.  If nothing else, they are really close.
• Sign Prince Fielder.  He plays first, Mike Morse moves to left, and the heart of the lineup looks like this: Zimmerman, Fielder, Werth, Morse.  Not too shabby.
• Give Bryce Harper a "chance" to earn a starting outfield job in spring training, but unless he blows up, send him back to the minors for one more year of seasoning.
• Look to trade for a center fielder with good OBP to lead off.  Perhaps re-ignite talks with the Twins about Denard Span, as he would be a great fit.
• Look for a seasoned veteran with a good track record of success to lead the staff of young high-upside starters (Strasburg, Zimmermann, Detwiler, etc.).  In terms of free agency, Oswalt fits the bill.  In terms of trading, talk to the Cubs about Garza, the Astros about Wandy/Myers, and maybe the White Sox about Jake Peavy.

Albert's Pro and Con List

Before I say anything else, let me just start by saying that I love the winter meetings.  If you are not aware of the winter meetings, or that they are happening this week in Dallas, let me give you a brief description.  The general managers of every MLB franchise agree to gather in one hotel for one week.  In addition to the general managers, there are player agents, players, coaches, owners, and lots of media present.  It is in this highly concentrated environment that the hot stove is never hotter...  

With all of that being said I should probably write a "Transaction Reaction" piece on Aaron Harang signing with the Dodgers or Matt Capps re-signing with the Twins.  But with all of the winter meetings excitement, those bits of news seem, well, dull.  Instead, I'd like write about what seems to be the biggest story at the moment--the fact that Albert Pujols negotiations are gaining "momentum."  The two teams that are getting hot and heavy are the Miami Marlins and the St. Louis Cardinals.  So what follows is a pro and con list for Albert signing with either of these teams:

St. Louis Cardinals

• Pro:
• He'd be coming back to join a world championship team that will be adding Cy Young caliber Adam Wainwright to the starting rotation
• He'd be able to remain in an organizational situation that he is comfortable with
• Quick, think of a list of the games most legendary players... How many of them played their whole career with one team?  There seems to be some inherent cache that comes with spending your entire tenure wearing one uniform
• Stan Musial style statue outside Busch Stadium
• The Cardinals are an organization that has proven its commitment to winning and fielding a competitive team over a long period of time
• The organization itself is an incredibly stable one 
• Con:
• I would guess that in the long run, the contract would be smaller (years and/or average annual value)
• The insult of the Cardinals front office "playing it cool" with regard to negotiations.  Everyone would like to be told that they are needed and couldn't be lived without.  The Cardinals simply have not said this to Albert with words or actions

Miami Marlins 

• Pro:
• Potentially bigger contract (years and/or average annual value)
• The chance to be the face of a franchise potentially on the rise, with a young core of star players and other star free agent additions
• The opportunity to play alongside more hispanic players, under a hispanic coach, in a hispanic city.  
• Exciting new uniforms (not sure if this is a pro or con... Take a look at the uni's and judge for yourself.  I guess it depends upon your sense of style)
• The chance to join fellow stars Heath Bell (Chris Bosh) and Jose Reyes (Dwayne Wade) in "taking his talents to south beach."
• I heard somewhere that Albert has a grandmother that lives in Miami.  I guess that matters, if you like your grandma and all...
• New is always exciting.  Right?
• Con
• No telling what this new mix of players and personalities will become (see "Transaction Reaction: Jose Reyes"), especially with the highly combustible Ozzie Guillen at the helm
• The Miami Marlins (formerly the Florida Marlins) have not proven their commitment to winning over a period of time.  In fact, they have done the exact opposite, twice winning the World Series, and then blowing up the roster
• There is no telling exactly how stable this franchise is.  They have perennially had one of the lower payrolls in the league, but all of a sudden they are big spenders, and are in on every free agent.  Something smells fishy... (pun intended)

All of that being said, I suspect  some decision will be made soon.  Winter meetings!!! 

Transaction Reaction: Jose Reyes

The Miami Marlins sign Jose Reyes on a six-year $106 million contract.

• I have read numerous debates whether the Marlins gave Reyes too much, or if the contract is a bargain.  In my opinion, the answer to this question hinges completely on Reyes' health over the next six years.  When he is healthy, Jose is one of the best, most dynamic, difference-making players in all of baseball.  And he plays a premium position!  The issue, however, is that Reyes has not been completely healthy, suffering numerous injuries and maladies over the past couple years.  Frankly, I'm not a doctor, nor do I play one on t.v., so I am not even going to speculate on his health going forward.
• What I do find more interesting about this deal, however, is the fact that the Marlins already have a shortstop.  And he's pretty good.  Maybe you have heard of him... His name is Hanley Ramirez.  I suppose the plan is to move him to third base or something.  But is he okay with such a move?  Going forward, this is going to be the interesting part of this signing, as we watch the dynamic between Reyes and Ramirez, one of which is not going to play shortstop.  (I suppose they could both play shortstop at the same time, but that seems like an inefficient arrangement of infielders).  
• Will Hanley be willing to move?  Will that move affect team chemistry?  Will this signing precipitate trade discussion revolving around Ramirez?  I don't know, but it should make for interesting theater.

Transaction Reaction: Heath Bell

The Marlins signed Heath Bell to a 3-Year, $27 million deal. It also contains a vesting option for a fourth year, which would also be at $9 million.

• First off, it's good to see the Marlins actually signing someone, rather than "expressing interest" in everyone.
• Heath Bell has been a very consistent and reliable closer, and it seems they got him for a reasonable price, although the number of years is a bit risky for a closer that is moving from Petco to an unknown new park.
• I personally would not have made this deal because of the extremely high number of quality closers still available in free agency and trade right now. My guess is that teams who decide to wait until near the end of free agency to go closer shopping will be scooping up guys for peanuts. There are only a certain number of closer positions, and none of these pitchers want to end up being the guy who could only land a setup role. This might turn out to be a rare scenario where the teams have all of the leverage over the free agents.