Transaction Reaction: Prince Fielder

The Detroit Tigers paid $214 million for 9 years of mash potential and androgyny. I tried to pay an artist for a rendering of Prince wearing a Tigers uniform, but it was hard to make out with all of the purple sequins and whatnot.... so I asked the artist to stop. All that to say, I paid a guy $17 to be the artist who was formerly going to draw Prince.

• This signing seems like a great story, right? Prince Fielder returns to Detroit where his father Cecil played, and where he grew up taking batting practice as a young boy. Quite a fairy tale. Here's the real story....all that happened, AND THEN his dad started gambling and didn't stop until he had run through his entire career's major league earnings and started stealing from Prince later in life. The two are not on speaking terms, so it strikes me as odd that Prince would want to draw these comparisons. However, I can think of 214 million reasons he might bury the hatchet and embrace his father's legacy in Detroit.
• At least from the Tiger's perspective it makes sense, right? Nope. In baseball, the rosters have only enough room for MAYBE two overweight players on each team, assuming they are both good enough to play regularly. The Detroit Tigers already have THREE other fatties under team control for two years or more, and all of them are good enough to play everyday. Victor Martinez is a DH who is injured this year, but will be paid handsomely for 2012 and 2013 when he comes back healthy. Alex Avila is a good young player, but one that is big enough that he can only play catcher or DH. Miguel Cabrera is notorious for his incredible performance and his weight. He can only reasonably play first. (Breaking news: The Tigers have just said Miguel Cabrera will be moved to third base to make room for Prince. Just for context, Miguel was very bad at first base....which is approximately 50 times easier and less athletic than third base.)
  
• So, it appears that the Tigers have dramatically added to their offense by subtracting from their defense in TWO different spots (1st base and 3rd base, because Prince is even worse than Cabrera!) Their reward for this maneuver is a bill for $214 million dollars, and a very pissed off Justin Verlander. This honestly might end up being the worst defensive infield ever created.
  
• Lastly, if the Tigers are expecting Prince to play baseball similar to how his father used to, wouldn't they pay attention to how his father aged? Cecil was a beast until age 32 when he hit 39 home runs, and then his production fell off a cliff. He was so terrible that he was out of baseball completely by age 34. Fangraphs ran an article in October regarding how "heavy" players age. Prince is 27 now, and the results of the article definitely do not support a 9-year deal. According to the Fangraphs analysis, heavy players peak at age 23 or 24 and decline quickly. By the age of 31-32, most heavy sluggers have lost more than 30% of their production.... At the age of 33, Prince will still have 4 years left on his deal and the Tigers will owe him approximately $100 million dollars. Do you know how many Raspberry Berets that could buy???? This is an exciting deal for Tigers fans for 2012....but let's check back with them in 2017.
  

"Pick to Click" Series: NL East

Pick to click! How about some NL East love?

Braves

• Pick to click - Jason Heyward
• Never underestimate the power of a much-hyped prospect that everyone writes off as a bust too early. As a 20 year old rookie, Heyward put up an on-base percentage of .393 and an OPS of .839. A huge bounce back candidate....HUGE.

Marlins

• Pick to click - Logan Morrison
• All of the crazy players will probably prosper under Ozzie... so logically the craziest will prosper the most. In a clubhouse full of candidates, I'm singling out Logan Morrison as the most crazy. (However, we excluded Carlos Zambrano because I'm expecting him to get arrested for stabbing someone by about mid-May. If not for his propensity for stabbing, he would have been picked to click.)
  

Mets

• Pick to click - Johan Sant....just kidding. Ike Davis
• Davis finished the year strong after returning from injury, but it will be interesting to see what he is capable of if given another full major league season. His rookie season in 2010 looked good, last year was essentially lost, so we'll see how he bounces back. I'm projecting around 30 home runs even in the middle of a terrible lineup.
• (Seriously though, the only clicking for Johan Santana is the sound his arm makes when he tries to throw a baseball.)

Nationals

• Pick to click - Prince Fielder
• Let's not get hung up on the details like, "He hasn't signed with them yet." or "His body mass index is close to 50." or "They created a third type of diabetes when he broke into the majors in 2005." (Which is true, by the way....look it up.)
• Trust me. Prince will sign with the Nationals, and their lineup will look excellent with him in the middle. He will click. They will click. It's suddenly a pretty deep lineup - Espinosa, Zimmerman, Fielder, Morse, Ramos, Werth etc.
• Prince will also be featured in our upcoming series "Picks to Stay Thick." Also in that series, we'll give a nod to Pablo Sandoval and relievers Ray King and Dennys Reyes. That's Dennys. Like the restaurant.

Phillies

• Pick to click -John Mayberry, Jr. and/or Dominic Brown
• Both have the potential to be productive everyday players. Mayberry was a good offensive player in a limited role last year, and thus far Brown has been underwhelming in his brief time in the majors. The injury to Howard will give one of these players an opportunity to get regular at bats, and there might also be a spot in the outfield if they both start playing well since no one wants to see Laynce Nix out there every day. Double pick to click!

"If I Were General Manager..." Series: AL West

Angels

• The Pujols deal will be a huge boost to this offense for the short term. The problem is, even with Albert inserted, the lineup looks to be full of holes. My first order of business is to trade a piece for a legit bat to slip in front of or behind Albert to ensure he gets to swing the bat once or twice a week. (We can't be paying 254 million for a bulky David Eckstein to draw 35 walks per week.) I would make a solid run at Chase Headley.
• The rotation looks solid with the addition of C.J. Wilson, so no complaints there.
• Trout needs to play every day. He's ready, but players like Abreu are blocking him. While he's had a good career, Abreu's only strength is his bat (OBP) at this point, and he was BARELY above average last year. Even if Trout is terrible offensively, his glove will make him a better value than anything Abreu can offer at this point.

Athletics

• Nothing too exciting here, except for full rebuilding mode. Restock for the future with brighter ballparks, relocation, and a somewhat new fan base.
• I like the trade involving Cahill. I would also shop Gio to the Red Sox/Yankees and shoot for high upside pieces that will mature to the MLB in about three years to correspond with the new stadium. Also, see if there is interest in Dallas Braden, but hang on to Brandon McCarthy.
• Sell high on as many relievers as possible, because we don't expect to be holding many leads over the next few years anyway. Ziegler, Bailey, Balfour, Devine.....anyone who will bring a return is out the door.
• Pray that some offense walks through the door. Building the offense around Scott Sizemore seems like a desperate situation.

Mariners

• Move the walls in... then sign Prince Fielder. Actually, on second thought....better get Prince in the door first and THEN move the walls in around him. That would be embarrassing for everyone involved. (Yep, we're doing fat jokes...)
• Stick with Brendan Ryan at short, and be consistent. Defense first up the middle, but add offense at the corners. What got the M's in trouble was the "defense first" model at every position.
• The maturation of Mike Carp and Justin Smoak along with the acquisition of Fielder will boost the offense plenty, so I would add a mid-level starter and see where we stand after this year.

Rangers

• The Angels won't steal our mojo with a few big signings. We have a huge TV contract also, and a much better offense than the Anaheim Alberts. I go hard after Fielder to make our lineup even more incredible.
• Feliz definitely moves to the rotation, and Scott Feldman becomes the closer.
• I wait until near spring training and scoop up the best ground ball pitcher that is available as a 6th starter since we have some young starters and a converted closer that might not be able to take a full workload. Also, I can flip Mitch Moreland and cash for a low-tier pitcher or non-tender candidate if nothing in the scrap heap is to my liking.

Value in a Vacuum for the Top Fifty 2012 Free Agents

There is nothing more exciting than the midnight deadline at which all free agents are free to negotiate with every team.  From that point forward, anything is possible.  Your team could dramatically enhance its prospects for success by signing the right free agent(s). Or it could be left without adding a single marquee player, or even worse, agreeing to an albatross of a contract (I’m looking at you, Vernon Wells…)

Now of course this whole free agent enterprise is more complex than simply picking the guys that you want the most, like a fantasy draft.  Each team has to take into account a myriad of factors, including positional needs, available payroll, and whether your team is looking to win now or rebuild. 

But what if we threw all that aside?  What is each free agent’s Value in a Vacuum (VIAM)?  So here is how the exercise works.  You are Team X.  Your budget is the average of all MLB teams.  You have no particular needs that stand out over any other.  Given these factors, what is the value, on a scale of 1-10 (10 being high value, 1 being, well, Carlos Zambrano), of each of the top fifty free agents, considering the sort of contract they will command in this market. 

For this assignment, I am using top fifty free agents list from mlbtraderumors.com, a list as good as any. (Is anyone really going to argue over who is the 50^th best versus 51^st best free agent?) 

1. Albert Pujols—8—Admittedly, he is getting older and is going to command an enormous contract, both in years and in average annual value (AAV).  But the guy is a proven winner who deeply cares about winning and is maybe the most consistently excellent player in baseball history.  Drop-off is expected, but even his drop-off is better than most guys’ best season.

2. Prince Fielder—8—Comparable in present ability to Albert, and younger, but massive body is a bit of a concern to break down at the back end of the long-term contract he will demand.

3.Jose Reyes—6—Absolute game-changer when he is healthy.  He features all five tools at a premiere position.  The problem is, how many games can you expect him to play?

4. C.J. Wilson—3—Wilson is a very good pitcher.  Unfortunately, in a year in which he is the top free agent starter, you have to pay him--in years and AAV--as an ace, when he is really a high-end number three/low-end two.

5. Yu Darvish—3—Darvish will command at least the sort of money as Matzusaka did several years ago, which was over $100 million combined when both the posting fee and contract are taken into account.  It is doubtful he can live up to that sort of contract.  This valuation also reflects a belief that in general GM’s have overvalued players from Japan.  This is not meant to be a knock against Japanese players, but MLB scouts.  There has only been one Ichiro.  Other than him and Hiroki Kuroda, The rest have underachieved relative to scouts’ expectations.  Think about it. 

6.Edwin Jackson—4—Edwin will probably command a 4-year contract.  But while he has shown flashes of brilliance, those flashes have been overshadowed by a career of mediocrity.  Still, he is young (only 28), and durable.  He could be a low-end number three/high-end four.

7. Jimmy Rollins—5—The value on this one is highly dependent on how many years Rollins gets.  Jimmy is still a good player, and a proven winner.  But he is no spring chicken.

8.Aramis Ramirez—4—Getting older, but still a solid player.  But I wouldn’t overspend, as he has seen prolonged slumps the last couple seasons.  And those slumps could start getting longer…

9. Carlos Beltran—6—With the right situation, and the right length contract (short!), Beltran could be a major offensive contributor.

10. Jonathan Papelbon—6—Papelbon is still a top-shelf closer, though he will command top dollar.  If Boston was thinking outside the box, with their rotational woes, they might consider converting Papelbon to a starter and make Bard the closer.

11. Michael Cuddyer—7—Cuddyer can play nearly every position on the field, and has proven that he can be an all-star offensive player.  Unless someone decides to overpay, Cuddyer could be a major bargain.

 

12. Mark Buehrle—7—Buehrle is known to be nearing retirement, so he probably wouldn’t be interested in a super-long contract.  Potentially the best starting pitcher value of the 2012 offseason.

13. David Ortiz—2—Someone (Yankees?!?) is going to grossly overpay for this quickly-aging DH.  This could be the year he drops off the table (see: Dunn, Adam)

14. Ryan Madson—3—This is a case of baseball’s overvaluation of closers.  Madson is a good pitcher, but he is going to get a huge contract for half a season of successfully finishing games.

15.  Hiroki Kuroda—7—Getting older, so he probably will only get 1 or 2 years.  Despite his age, however, Kuroda has been strikingly consistent, perhaps even getting better over the last couple years.

16. Carlos Pena—4—Probably won’t get more than a year or two.  Does not really offer much by way of positive value, especially playing first base.  If he can’t get it done at Wriglely Field, then where?

17. Francisco Rodriguez—3—See: Madson, Ryan

18. Roy Oswalt—7—Roy hasn’t always been healthy, but when he has, he has been great. 

19. Javier Vasquez—2—I’ve seen this movie too many times.

20. Heath Bell—7—If you want a closer, this is the guy to get.  Consistent, all-star, great team guy

21.  Coco Crisp—4—Is he still playing?  In all seriousness, if your team is banking on Crisp as a starter, you’ve got big problems.  But maybe as a fourth/fifth outfielder, he could have some value.

22. Hisashi Iwakuma—2—See my thoughts on Japanese players at #5 above.

23. Kelly Johnson—6—After a rough season, if Johnson bounces back , he could be a decent value.

24.  Josh Willingham—4—Slugging corner outfielders aren’t hard to find.

25.  Paul Maholm—3—Low-end four/high-end five starter.  Will get paid like a three.

26.  Grady Sizemore—8—He’s going to be cheap.  You either believe or you don’t.  I’m rolling the dice. 

27.  Bartolo Colon—4—After a successful season, he will be spending his offseason with a celebratory meal.  One long celebratory meal…

28.  Erik Bedard—3—Great when he’s healthy.  All two weeks.

29.  David DeJesus—4—Most teams have a comparable (though much cheaper) player on their Triple-A squad.

30. Jason Kubel—6—The only thing Kubel does well is hit.  But he does it pretty well. 

31. Ramon Hernandez—3—Good player, but in addition to the contract, Hernandez will cost teams a first round draft pick because somehow he is a type-A free agent.  Pass.

32.  Jeff Francis—6—Francis on a one-year deal could be a decent value for a team trying to fill out the back end of the rotation. 

33.  Chris Capuano—4—About the same as Francis, but with lower upside

34.  Ysuyoshi Wada—2—See #22

35. Clint Barmes—4—On a one-year deal, he might be a decent utility player.  But teams might do just as well promoting someone from Triple-A

36.  Casey Kotchman—8—Kotchman is young and had a great season last year.  I’m not sure why there isn’t more interest in him.  Assuming interest stays low, there is great value here. 

37.  Freddy Garcia—4—I’m not a believer in the comeback season, but on a one-year flier, you could do worse.

38.  Aaron Hill—9—Hill had a bad year in 2011, but started to turn it around after a late season trade to the D-Backs.  But keep in mind that he has a mind-boggling offensive performance roughly every-other season.  And last year was the bad one…

39.  Johnny Damon—4—Meh…

40.  Aaron Harang—6—In the right situation, Harang could thrive as a back-of-the rotation guy on a one-year deal.

41.  Jamey Carroll—3—Definition of a replacement level player.  Just pull up a minor leaguer. 

42.  Rafael Furcal—6—When healthy, Furcal is a good player.  And even though it seems like he has been around forever, he is only 33.

43.  Juan Pierre—3—He is what he is.  A light-hitting corner outfielder with some speed.

44.  Frank Francisco—5—Francisco is a good reliever.  He is a good value unless he is paid as a closer.

45.  Jason Marquis—2—No reason to have this guy on your team. 

46.  Joel Pineiro—5—Like Harang (#40) Piniero can eat some valuable innings as a back-of-the-rotation guy on a one year deal

47.  Jonathon Broxton—5—Likely to get overlooked because of health problems.  Remember, in 2010, he was an elite closer.  Risk/reward here.

48.  Joe Nathan—6—Not sure how much he will command, but Nathan is a battle-tested closer with a brand new elbow ligament

49. Kerry Wood—4—Kerry Wood’s career has run its course

50.  Bruce Chen—3—Pass.

Concluding Thoughts:  All in all, this is not a great free agent class.  After the two first basemen, the other top name guys are going to be grossly overvalued and overpaid because of it.  Teams are better off grabbing a couple mid to lower level free agents with some upside on low risk one or two year deals. 

By the way, please feel free to squabble with my valuations in the comments!