Transaction Reaction: Prince Fielder

The Detroit Tigers paid $214 million for 9 years of mash potential and androgyny. I tried to pay an artist for a rendering of Prince wearing a Tigers uniform, but it was hard to make out with all of the purple sequins and whatnot.... so I asked the artist to stop. All that to say, I paid a guy $17 to be the artist who was formerly going to draw Prince.

• This signing seems like a great story, right? Prince Fielder returns to Detroit where his father Cecil played, and where he grew up taking batting practice as a young boy. Quite a fairy tale. Here's the real story....all that happened, AND THEN his dad started gambling and didn't stop until he had run through his entire career's major league earnings and started stealing from Prince later in life. The two are not on speaking terms, so it strikes me as odd that Prince would want to draw these comparisons. However, I can think of 214 million reasons he might bury the hatchet and embrace his father's legacy in Detroit.
• At least from the Tiger's perspective it makes sense, right? Nope. In baseball, the rosters have only enough room for MAYBE two overweight players on each team, assuming they are both good enough to play regularly. The Detroit Tigers already have THREE other fatties under team control for two years or more, and all of them are good enough to play everyday. Victor Martinez is a DH who is injured this year, but will be paid handsomely for 2012 and 2013 when he comes back healthy. Alex Avila is a good young player, but one that is big enough that he can only play catcher or DH. Miguel Cabrera is notorious for his incredible performance and his weight. He can only reasonably play first. (Breaking news: The Tigers have just said Miguel Cabrera will be moved to third base to make room for Prince. Just for context, Miguel was very bad at first base....which is approximately 50 times easier and less athletic than third base.)
  
• So, it appears that the Tigers have dramatically added to their offense by subtracting from their defense in TWO different spots (1st base and 3rd base, because Prince is even worse than Cabrera!) Their reward for this maneuver is a bill for $214 million dollars, and a very pissed off Justin Verlander. This honestly might end up being the worst defensive infield ever created.
  
• Lastly, if the Tigers are expecting Prince to play baseball similar to how his father used to, wouldn't they pay attention to how his father aged? Cecil was a beast until age 32 when he hit 39 home runs, and then his production fell off a cliff. He was so terrible that he was out of baseball completely by age 34. Fangraphs ran an article in October regarding how "heavy" players age. Prince is 27 now, and the results of the article definitely do not support a 9-year deal. According to the Fangraphs analysis, heavy players peak at age 23 or 24 and decline quickly. By the age of 31-32, most heavy sluggers have lost more than 30% of their production.... At the age of 33, Prince will still have 4 years left on his deal and the Tigers will owe him approximately $100 million dollars. Do you know how many Raspberry Berets that could buy???? This is an exciting deal for Tigers fans for 2012....but let's check back with them in 2017.
  

Fantasy Baseball! Top Twelve Overall

Good morning, friends. Recently, ADR and I were talking about the upcoming 2012 fantasy baseball season (we both love fantasy baseball, by the way), and were discussing some stupid rankings given by the so-called fantasy baseball "experts." In the course of our conversation, we decided that we should be fantasy "experts," and just like that, it happened. We are now fantasy baseball "experts." (Seriously... I think that's all it takes...) In fact, we are already in the process of having "Fantasy Baseball Expert" business cards printed up. Anyhow, given our new expert status, ADR and I will be posting fantasy baseball articles in addition to our normal baseball commentary.

More specifically, beginning this week we will releasing our series of "Top Twelves," as we give first our Top Twelve overall for 2012, and then our position-by-position top twelves, all of which will be a part of our Hottest Stove 2012 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. (We are going with twelve, by the way, because that should cover both ten and twelve team leagues.)

Now, if for some reason you are not into fantasy baseball (which, I think, you really should be...), no need to fret, because in addition to our fantasy baseball content, we will be continuing with our "Pick to Click" Series, and regular baseball musings.

With all that being said, here are our Top Twelve Overall Rankings:

ADR	AG
1. Matt Kemp	1. Jose Bautista
2. Jose Bautista	2. Matt Kemp
3. Albert Pujols	3. Miguel Cabrera
4. Troy Tulowitzki	4. Adrian Gonzalez
5. Miguel Cabrera	5. Albert Pujols
6. Adrian Gonzalez	6. Troy Tulowitzki
	(This is where Ryan Braun goes for me if he beats the P.E.D. rap)
7. Justin Upton	7. Evan Longoria
8. Curtis Granderson	8. Justin Upton
9. Prince Fielder	9. Prince Fielder (Because he hasn’t signed yet, this is a team-neutral ranking. If he signs with Texas, I bump him up to #3. If he signs with Seattle, I drop him out of the Top 12.)
10. Robinson Cano	10. Roy Halladay
11. Matt Holliday	11. Joey Votto
12. Jose Reyes	12. Robinson Cano

A Few Quick Comments: People can always squabble with first round orders, but frankly its hard to miss with any of these guys. That's why they are being taken in the first round of fantasy drafts. There few notable differences between ADR and I. While we agree on the first two guys (Bautista and Kemp), we have them flip-flopped. Pujols, who has long been #1 overall has dropped in both of our rankings. Granderson, Holliday, and Reyes, whom ADR has in his Top Twelve, do not appear in mine. In their place, I have Longoria, Halladay--the only pitcher in either Top Twelve, and Votto. The only spot that we both have exactly the same is the Purple Rain at #9.

By the way, either of us are happy to defend our respective rankings in the comments section below. Up next, the Top Twelve Catchers!

"Pick to Click" Series: NL East

Pick to click! How about some NL East love?

Braves

• Pick to click - Jason Heyward
• Never underestimate the power of a much-hyped prospect that everyone writes off as a bust too early. As a 20 year old rookie, Heyward put up an on-base percentage of .393 and an OPS of .839. A huge bounce back candidate....HUGE.

Marlins

• Pick to click - Logan Morrison
• All of the crazy players will probably prosper under Ozzie... so logically the craziest will prosper the most. In a clubhouse full of candidates, I'm singling out Logan Morrison as the most crazy. (However, we excluded Carlos Zambrano because I'm expecting him to get arrested for stabbing someone by about mid-May. If not for his propensity for stabbing, he would have been picked to click.)
  

Mets

• Pick to click - Johan Sant....just kidding. Ike Davis
• Davis finished the year strong after returning from injury, but it will be interesting to see what he is capable of if given another full major league season. His rookie season in 2010 looked good, last year was essentially lost, so we'll see how he bounces back. I'm projecting around 30 home runs even in the middle of a terrible lineup.
• (Seriously though, the only clicking for Johan Santana is the sound his arm makes when he tries to throw a baseball.)

Nationals

• Pick to click - Prince Fielder
• Let's not get hung up on the details like, "He hasn't signed with them yet." or "His body mass index is close to 50." or "They created a third type of diabetes when he broke into the majors in 2005." (Which is true, by the way....look it up.)
• Trust me. Prince will sign with the Nationals, and their lineup will look excellent with him in the middle. He will click. They will click. It's suddenly a pretty deep lineup - Espinosa, Zimmerman, Fielder, Morse, Ramos, Werth etc.
• Prince will also be featured in our upcoming series "Picks to Stay Thick." Also in that series, we'll give a nod to Pablo Sandoval and relievers Ray King and Dennys Reyes. That's Dennys. Like the restaurant.

Phillies

• Pick to click -John Mayberry, Jr. and/or Dominic Brown
• Both have the potential to be productive everyday players. Mayberry was a good offensive player in a limited role last year, and thus far Brown has been underwhelming in his brief time in the majors. The injury to Howard will give one of these players an opportunity to get regular at bats, and there might also be a spot in the outfield if they both start playing well since no one wants to see Laynce Nix out there every day. Double pick to click!

Transaction Reaction: The Yankees' New Rotation

In a matter of minutes, the Bronx Bombers negotiated a major trade for Michael Pineda and signed free agent Hiroki Kuroda. Bombers and the Japanese haven't combined for this big of a news story since......(edited due to a blatant lack of cultural sensitivity).

These moves addressed and then erased the only doubts about New York's roster for 2012. Many seemed to think the Yankees were content to huddle just under the salary cap and wait for next years' free agent class to address their pitching needs (Cain, Greinke, etc.) These moves immediately push the Yankees to the top of the power rankings in my book, as the middle and back end of their rotation just shifted from being an Achilles heel to one of the biggest strengths of the ball club. Keep in mind they also still have Burnett, Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes to battle for the fifth spot. This is crucial because they will have two additional pitchers who can step in immediately for spot starts rather than relying on unproven youngsters. This also might give them some time to work with Burnett and see if he can regain his form from a few years ago.

-First, the trade. The Yankees traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to obtain Michael Pineda and Jose Campos, a hard-throwing prospect. How good is Michael Pineda? Well, Pineda was good enough to make the All-Star team as a rookie last year. He also gets his outs by striking out a TON of hitters, which is crucial if he's going to pitch well in the New York Launching Pad. I've heard that Hector Noesi has huge upside, which may eventually make him as good as Pineda. However, I've never seen him pitch and the Yankees have a history of vastly overrating their own prospects (see: Joba). Jesus Montero is also a big time prospect, and he seems like he will end up being an elite bat. The challenge for the Mariners will be whether to keep him at catcher or to put him at first base. Either way, it seems like each team got what they wanted, and on the surface it looks to be a reasonably fair deal.

-Then, the free agent signing. Hiroki Kuroda is a phenominal pitcher when he is healthy. However, his injury history has limited his innings load. This works out pretty nicely for the Yankees given their new found depth. I already mentioned that they have 6 or 7 decent option for 5 spots, so they can use Kuroda when he is healthy, and use Phil Hughes or AJ Burnett if not. I love the look of the new rotation, and Kuroda brings some talent and a different look to the middle of their rotation. I can't imagine how awkward it would feel trying to hit against CC Sabathia one day, and then attempting to regain your timing against Kuroda the next day. The only possible downside to this deal is that Kuroda is an aging, contact pitcher who is used to playing in Los Angeles, which is a very favorable pitching environment. For context, to translate Kuroda's numbers from LA to his new park in New York, you'd have to adjust his stats by an incredible 45% (according to Stat Corner's park effects data). That would push his ERA closer to 4.30 or 4.40. Yankees fans can breathe easy though, because Kuroda does induce a high number of ground balls, and those don't often fly over the fence.