Transaction Reaction: Coco Crisp

The Oakland Athletics sign Coco Crisp to a two year deal worth $14 million with a team option for 2014.  Crisp will be paid $6 million in 2012, $7 million in 2013, and in 2014, the A's will either pick up an option worth $7.5 million or pay a $1 million buyout.

• Huh?
• I'll be honest, I don't get this one, Brad Pi... I mean Billy Beane.  This offseason, the A's have dealt away talented young players entering their prime (Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Andrew Bailey, Craig Breslow) for even younger prospects who are years away from major league contributions and have let players in the latter half of their prime (Josh Willingham, David DeJesus) walk, all presumably in an attempt for a total rebuild.  All of their actions signal the raising up of the white flag before the 2012 even starts.  And then they sign Coco Crisp, a mediocre player entering the downside of his career, to a multi-year contract in which he makes just enough money to successfully block some young prospect outfielder from getting playing time.  I don't get it.
• Crisp is still fairly speedy (49 stolen bases last year), and is a decent defensive outfielder.  But he has little power, a middling average, and absolutely no upside.  And don't look for the Moneyball on-base magic, as Crisp has an ugly .330 career .OBP mark over a large sample size.  For a team like where the A's are right now, Coco Crisp makes no sense.
• So what is the angle? There has to be some reason to sign Crisp.  Right?  Maybe this team is so devoid of talent and personality, they needed to find the cheapest possible "face of the franchise," and who better than a guy with an Afro who is named after a cereal.   Enjoy your Coco Crisp bobble-head night, Oakland fans! 

"If I Were General Manager..." Series: AL West

Angels

• The Pujols deal will be a huge boost to this offense for the short term. The problem is, even with Albert inserted, the lineup looks to be full of holes. My first order of business is to trade a piece for a legit bat to slip in front of or behind Albert to ensure he gets to swing the bat once or twice a week. (We can't be paying 254 million for a bulky David Eckstein to draw 35 walks per week.) I would make a solid run at Chase Headley.
• The rotation looks solid with the addition of C.J. Wilson, so no complaints there.
• Trout needs to play every day. He's ready, but players like Abreu are blocking him. While he's had a good career, Abreu's only strength is his bat (OBP) at this point, and he was BARELY above average last year. Even if Trout is terrible offensively, his glove will make him a better value than anything Abreu can offer at this point.

Athletics

• Nothing too exciting here, except for full rebuilding mode. Restock for the future with brighter ballparks, relocation, and a somewhat new fan base.
• I like the trade involving Cahill. I would also shop Gio to the Red Sox/Yankees and shoot for high upside pieces that will mature to the MLB in about three years to correspond with the new stadium. Also, see if there is interest in Dallas Braden, but hang on to Brandon McCarthy.
• Sell high on as many relievers as possible, because we don't expect to be holding many leads over the next few years anyway. Ziegler, Bailey, Balfour, Devine.....anyone who will bring a return is out the door.
• Pray that some offense walks through the door. Building the offense around Scott Sizemore seems like a desperate situation.

Mariners

• Move the walls in... then sign Prince Fielder. Actually, on second thought....better get Prince in the door first and THEN move the walls in around him. That would be embarrassing for everyone involved. (Yep, we're doing fat jokes...)
• Stick with Brendan Ryan at short, and be consistent. Defense first up the middle, but add offense at the corners. What got the M's in trouble was the "defense first" model at every position.
• The maturation of Mike Carp and Justin Smoak along with the acquisition of Fielder will boost the offense plenty, so I would add a mid-level starter and see where we stand after this year.

Rangers

• The Angels won't steal our mojo with a few big signings. We have a huge TV contract also, and a much better offense than the Anaheim Alberts. I go hard after Fielder to make our lineup even more incredible.
• Feliz definitely moves to the rotation, and Scott Feldman becomes the closer.
• I wait until near spring training and scoop up the best ground ball pitcher that is available as a 6th starter since we have some young starters and a converted closer that might not be able to take a full workload. Also, I can flip Mitch Moreland and cash for a low-tier pitcher or non-tender candidate if nothing in the scrap heap is to my liking.

The Injury Bug

If you listen long enough to any casual baseball conversation, a team's losing season is always attributed partly to the injury bug. These dreams of what might have been are often legitimate to a certain extent because with a grueling 162-game schedule, absolutely every team faces a number of injuries. But how can we compare and contrast the injury fortune or misfortune of different teams? How can this even be measured so we know which fans are just making excuses, and which fans have a valid point?

-Should we just list off important players from memory, listing who got hurt last year? Heck no.
-Do we tally up DL stints? Maybe, but some DL stints last for months and some only a few weeks.
-What about tallying up the total number of DL days for each team? You're getting warmer.
-Should we check Baseball Prospectus and hope they already did the leg work for us? Absolutely!

Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh wrote a series of columns for BP called "Collateral Damage." They used WAR projections for each player who went on the DL, and calculated the number of days each player missed. This allowed them to determine how much value each team lost to injury throughout the course of the 2011 season ("WARP lost" is their name for the calculation). Unfortunately, these heated "Injury Bug" discussions are going to be a lot shorter in the future now that we have this data. Here at The Hottest Stove, all we have left to do is check out a few highlights from BP's "WARP lost" team rankings and discuss the implications for the coming year:

Some teams had a high number of injuries and were successful despite their bad fortune. Barring major roster changes, we would expect these teams to stay successful and possibly get even better if their luck evens out in 2012.

• The St. Louis Cardinals dealt with more injuries than 25 of the 30 teams in 2011, and still were able to sneak into the playoffs on the final day. None of the other teams in the top 5 in WARP lost were above .500.
• The Philadelphia Phillies dealt with a high number of injuries as well, and rode their starting pitching to 102 wins. They'll keep bolstering their roster through free agency and although their players are aging, they seem to fill roster holes pretty effectively during the year.
  
• The Texas Rangers also dealt with some key injuries throughout the summer months last year, but got incredibly hot once these pieces returned. The Rangers came within one strike of a World Series championship......twice.

Some teams had their actual talent level masked by high injury totals to key players. Expect a bounce back if these teams are healthy in 2012.

• The Minnesota Twins were awful in 2011, but who can blame them with injuries to just about everyone. They lost more value to injury than any other team, and by a wide margin. And you know, the Twins without Mauer and Morneau are a little like a mule with a spinning wheel. (He doesn't know how he got it, and darned if he knows how to use it....) Here's the short list of DL stints: Mauer, Morneau, Liriano, Baker, Kubel, Span, Slowey, Thome, Young, Nathan, and Nishioka. The AL central is wide open, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Twins are in the mix next year despite their terrible results in 2011.
  
• The San Francisco Giants will take a big step forward in 2012 and put themselves back atop the AL West. If they add a few decent bats, continue to pitch well, and get healthy, 2012 could be a great year for this group. The Giants (6th highest WARP lost) had a high number of injuries, while the Diamondbacks had relatively few injuries (4th lowest WARP lost total). Even though some of this is due to the age of the two rosters, look for a regression and for the AL West to be taken by San Francisco.

Some teams just aren't very good, and it wasn't because of injuries. The WARP lost total is very low on teams where the starters on the roster are very similar to replacement level.

• The Astros lost the least value of any team in the majors to injury, but this is partly due to the lack of value on their roster. No resurgence is in sight until they draft well and bring in more talent via trade/free agency.
• The Cubs lost surprisingly little value to injury in a year where they underachieved. Many expected good things from this roster last year, but even with luck seemingly on their side they couldn't get the job done.
• The Oakland Athletics didn't put much value on the field last year, so they didn't lose much to injury. The moneyball theory is excellent, but if every team is using it AND paying more for quality players it is hard to expect good results.