"Pick to Click" Series: NL Central UPDATE

Back in the original NL Central edition post of our "Pick to Click" Series, begrudgingly picked Fernando Martinez as my Pick to Click for the Houston Astros, not because I'm excited about him, but because I was less not-excited about him than anyone else on the team (follow the grammar there?). Anyway, since the original post, the Houston Astros have added a free agent who is now my Pick to Click for the team. Yep, that's right. Jack Cust. Cust, built in the pre-2011 Adam Dunn mode, is the definition of a "Three True Outcomes" player (strikeout, walk, or home run). He is not going to play good defense, he is not going to hit for a nice average, or steal bases. He probably won't do much of anything that resembles athleticism. But Cust has one worthwhile skill, and that is dropping bombs (Hitting home runs, I mean. No need to alert the local authorities). Up until this season, Cust has nearly his entire career in three of the worst hitters' parks in the game--San Diego, Oakland, and Seattle. But this year, he will be playing his home games in Minuit Maid Park, a stadium aptly nicknamed "The Juice Box" because of its small size. For this reason, while Jack may not be winning MVP awards or making All-Star teams, or frankly maybe not even really helping his team win, I do think that if he is given a full season worth of at-bats, he is going to hit 25+ dingers for the anemic Astros offense. Jack Cust... Pick to Click!

"Pick to Click" Series: NL East

Pick to click! How about some NL East love?

Braves

• Pick to click - Jason Heyward
• Never underestimate the power of a much-hyped prospect that everyone writes off as a bust too early. As a 20 year old rookie, Heyward put up an on-base percentage of .393 and an OPS of .839. A huge bounce back candidate....HUGE.

Marlins

• Pick to click - Logan Morrison
• All of the crazy players will probably prosper under Ozzie... so logically the craziest will prosper the most. In a clubhouse full of candidates, I'm singling out Logan Morrison as the most crazy. (However, we excluded Carlos Zambrano because I'm expecting him to get arrested for stabbing someone by about mid-May. If not for his propensity for stabbing, he would have been picked to click.)
  

Mets

• Pick to click - Johan Sant....just kidding. Ike Davis
• Davis finished the year strong after returning from injury, but it will be interesting to see what he is capable of if given another full major league season. His rookie season in 2010 looked good, last year was essentially lost, so we'll see how he bounces back. I'm projecting around 30 home runs even in the middle of a terrible lineup.
• (Seriously though, the only clicking for Johan Santana is the sound his arm makes when he tries to throw a baseball.)

Nationals

• Pick to click - Prince Fielder
• Let's not get hung up on the details like, "He hasn't signed with them yet." or "His body mass index is close to 50." or "They created a third type of diabetes when he broke into the majors in 2005." (Which is true, by the way....look it up.)
• Trust me. Prince will sign with the Nationals, and their lineup will look excellent with him in the middle. He will click. They will click. It's suddenly a pretty deep lineup - Espinosa, Zimmerman, Fielder, Morse, Ramos, Werth etc.
• Prince will also be featured in our upcoming series "Picks to Stay Thick." Also in that series, we'll give a nod to Pablo Sandoval and relievers Ray King and Dennys Reyes. That's Dennys. Like the restaurant.

Phillies

• Pick to click -John Mayberry, Jr. and/or Dominic Brown
• Both have the potential to be productive everyday players. Mayberry was a good offensive player in a limited role last year, and thus far Brown has been underwhelming in his brief time in the majors. The injury to Howard will give one of these players an opportunity to get regular at bats, and there might also be a spot in the outfield if they both start playing well since no one wants to see Laynce Nix out there every day. Double pick to click!

Joel Zumaya... Play "Free Bird!"

Earlier this week, the Minnesota Twins signed reliever Joel Zumaya to one-year contract worth $800k, but could be worth $1.7 million if certain incentives have been reached.  The signing passed with relatively little fanfare, and with good reason.  Zumaya hasn't been healthy since 2010, and he was never as dominant as he was in his 2006 rookie season.  His main weapon was always his 100 mph+ fastball, and he is reportedly now being clocked between 92-94--still fast, but not the same.  Now certainly Joel could ramp that speed back up during the course of the season, but even if he performs at a high level, I don't think it will drastically change the mediocre outlook for the Twins in 2012.

So why write about this signing?  Because it reminds me of one of my favorite sports stories of all time.  Back in the 2006 American League Championships Series, Zumaya had to be sidelined for a couple games because of forearm soreness.  Many figured the soreness was understandable, even expected, given how hard Zumaya threw.  But doctors were somewhat befuddled, because the injury to Zumaya was more consistent with injuries they regularly saw with musicians that play the guitar.  That's when Zumaya admitted his love/addiction to the video game, Guitar Hero... Which doctors said explained the injury perfectly.  Awesome.  

Below you can find a picture formerly posted on Zumaya's Facebook page (which it appears he has since deleted), attesting to his devotion to the game, and forever reminding me of how hard Joel rocks...

"Pick to Click" Series: NL Central

Good day, Hot-Stovers!  Today, we are beginning a new series we are calling the "Pick to Click" series.  We will be looking at every team and naming a player that is our "pick to click."  When we say that we think a player is going to "click," what we mean is that we think he is going to have everything fall into place in 2012 for a season of unexpected, and perhaps unprecedented, success.  (By the way, if you are fantasy baseball enthusiasts, like we are, you might term these guys as "sleepers"... Do with the info what you will.)

As we are wont to do, ADR and I will be going division by division, starting today with the National League Central.  Please, feel free to offer your own "pick to clicks" for the division in the comments below.  Without further ado...

St. Louis Cardinals

• Pick to Click--Tyler Greene
• I have been personally touting the Greene Lantern (it will catch on... just wait... I've already got the t-shirts printed up...) for years now.  Originally drafted in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft, a first round loaded with talent, Greene was originally slotted to take over at shortstop for David Eckstein.  However, while producing at the minor league level, Greene has never taken advantage of his short stints at the majors.  Many have been suspicious that he struggled under the iron fist of pro-crusty-veteran former manager, Tony LaRussa.  But, as you may have heard, Tony retired, and has been replaced by a more young-guy-friendly Mike Matheny.  Both Matheny and GM John Mozeliak have verbally praised Greene's minor league success (.323/.422/.579 slash line last year at triple-A... Yikes!)  and have expressed a desire to see him win the starting second base job for the Cards in 2012.   Tyler Greene... Pick to click!

Cincinnati Reds

• Pick to Click--Jay Bruce
• I know, I know.  You are saying that Jay Bruce kinda already clicked last year.  But I'm expecting even higher levels of clicktitude this year.  Like .300+ batting average and 40+ home runs clicking.  Bruce plays in a hitter-friendly stadium, and in a lineup where pitchers will be focused more on getting out Joey Votto.  Oh, and by the way, while it feels like he has been around for a while, Bruce is still only 24 years old.  Do you know who baseball-reference.com lists as the most comparable hitter through age 24?  Reggie Jackson.  Yep.  Jay Bruce... Pick to click!

Milwaukee Brewers

• Pick to Click--Matt Gamel
• Matt Gamel has displayed some serious mash in his minor league career, but many have labelled him a Quad-A player after his hitting prowess has seemingly not translated to the bigs.  If you look at his major league career, however, he really has not gotten an extended look with every day playing time.  Until this year, that is.  With the Purple Rain departing, the Brewers seem content to hand the first base gig to Gamel, who is coming off a Triple-A season in which he batted .310 with 28 home runs and a .540 slugging percentage.  I don't think he will be a world-beater, but I bet he has a really solid season.  Matt Gamel... Pick to click!

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Pick to Click--Erik Bedard
• Hey, remember when Erik Bedard was awesome?  Back when he was traded for Adam (non-Pacman) Jones and four other players?  Back when he was arguably the second best starter in fantasy baseball after Johan Santana?  The Pirates do.  And so do I.  Erik Bedard... Pick to click!

Chicago Cubs

• Pick to Click--Ian Stewart
• I also thought about Bryan LaHair or Anthony Rizzo in this spot, but ultimately I settled on Ian Stewart.  Back when Stewart was still a prospect in the Rockies organization, I read an article by one of the Colorado sportswriters (nice citation form, right?) in which the author explained that at the time the Rockies would be okay with trading away Matt Holliday because they were confident that Ian Stewart would be able to fill his offensive void.  Pretty high expectations, but at the time the Colorado front office must have felt they were justified.  I'm betting that a change of scenery will be just what the doctor ordered for Stewart.  Ian Stewart... Pick to click!

Houston Astros (soon to be of the AL West)

• Pick to Click--Gross... Do I have to pick someone from the Astros?  Really?  Alright... Hmmm... I guess I'll go with... Fernando Martinez
• This team is absolutely devoid of anything exciting or hope-worthy.  So devoid that the guy I decided to (was forced to) pick is a guy the Mets just decided to cut.  Martinez, still only 23 years old, has long been on top prospect lists as a guy who has flashed impressive power rates, but just has not been able to stay healthy.  So I'm betting on him (by default) to finally start to live up to some of his potential with a change of scenery.  His new home with the Astros takes him from a bad hitters park in New York to a great one in Houston.  And the only thing standing between him and winning a starting job with the Astros is perhaps the worst starting outfield of all time, in Martinez, Schafer, and Bogusevic.  Fernando Martinez... Pick to click (sorta...)

MLB Power Ranking: January 16

Time for our bi-monthly MLB Power Ranking update. With every rise or drop of a team, we will offer a brief explanation for the change.   Still curious to see where the Purple Rain will land... As always, feel free to squabble in the comments below! 

1. New York Yankees (Up from #4. In one day, the Yankees dramatically improved their chances by drastically improving their rotation, turning what was a weakness into a strength.  Prior to their recent moves, beyond Sabathia, the rotation was brutal [see: "The Yankees' Inexplicable Dearth of Starting Pitching"].  By adding Pineda and Kuroda as their #2/#3 starters, the Yankees have turned Nova into their #4 and now have an open competition between Hughes/Burnett/Garcia for the #5 spot. [Just noticed this oddity, but if Garcia wins the job, all five starter will have last names that end with "A."])  
2. Texas Rangers (Up from #3.  This ranking comes with the assumption that the Rangers will eventually actually sign Yu Darvish.  Frankly, its also a lot about my present feelings on the Red Sox, who haven't necessarily yet addressed some question marks in the rotation.  I'm also very uneasy about Bobby Valentine, who looks like he could be part of sci-fi show in which all the figures in a wax museum come to life.)
3. Boston Red Sox
4. St. Louis Cardinals 
5. Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim)
6. Philadelphia Phillies
7. Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Tampa Bay Rays
9. Toronto Blue Jays
10. Cincinnati Reds
11. Atlanta Braves
12. Washington Nationals
13. Detroit Tigers (Down from #8.  No major changes with the Tigers.  I just looked at their roster and said, "Bleah...") 
14. Cleveland Indians
15. Colorado Rockies
16. San Francisco Giants
17. Chicago White Sox
18. Minnesota Twins
19. Milwaukee Brewers
20. Miami Marlins (Down from #17.  Yep, this drop comes because of the addition of Carlos Zambrano, who actually represents negative vale.  In my mind, his acquisition signals that the Marlins aren't really trying to win [see: "The 2012 Miami Marlins: My New Favorite Reality TV Show"])
21. Kansas City Royals
22. Los Angeles Dodgers
23. Chicago Cubs (Up from #26.  As much as I hate to say it, Theo Epstein has made some great [in a couple cases, very one-sided] moves.  He was able to acquire a potential franchise first baseman in Anthony Rizzo for nothing more than a hard-throwing reliever [see: "Transaction Reaction: Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner"] somehow able to get rid of Carlos Zambrano without the involvement of the mob.  By the way, I can't wait until everybody in the world jumps on the Cubs bandwagon when they start showing signs of life.  Just wait, being a Cubs fan will become painfully trendy, a-la being a Red Sox fan in 2004.) 
24. Seattle Mariners (Up from #25.  Jesus Montero should offer some long-term mash on a team starving for offense.  But they also lost their #2 starter in the trade with the Yankees, so not a huge jump in the power rankings.  This move up also represents a drop for the Padres who were on the wrong end of the Rizzo for Cashner swap.)
25. Pittsburgh Pirates
26. San Diego Padres 
27. New York Mets
28. Baltimore Orioles
29. Houston Astros
30. Oakland Athletics (If there was a way for me to drop the A's further, I would.  They are brutal! Maybe they can bring Scott Hatteberg out of retirement.)

Transaction Reaction: The Yankees' New Rotation

In a matter of minutes, the Bronx Bombers negotiated a major trade for Michael Pineda and signed free agent Hiroki Kuroda. Bombers and the Japanese haven't combined for this big of a news story since......(edited due to a blatant lack of cultural sensitivity).

These moves addressed and then erased the only doubts about New York's roster for 2012. Many seemed to think the Yankees were content to huddle just under the salary cap and wait for next years' free agent class to address their pitching needs (Cain, Greinke, etc.) These moves immediately push the Yankees to the top of the power rankings in my book, as the middle and back end of their rotation just shifted from being an Achilles heel to one of the biggest strengths of the ball club. Keep in mind they also still have Burnett, Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes to battle for the fifth spot. This is crucial because they will have two additional pitchers who can step in immediately for spot starts rather than relying on unproven youngsters. This also might give them some time to work with Burnett and see if he can regain his form from a few years ago.

-First, the trade. The Yankees traded Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi to obtain Michael Pineda and Jose Campos, a hard-throwing prospect. How good is Michael Pineda? Well, Pineda was good enough to make the All-Star team as a rookie last year. He also gets his outs by striking out a TON of hitters, which is crucial if he's going to pitch well in the New York Launching Pad. I've heard that Hector Noesi has huge upside, which may eventually make him as good as Pineda. However, I've never seen him pitch and the Yankees have a history of vastly overrating their own prospects (see: Joba). Jesus Montero is also a big time prospect, and he seems like he will end up being an elite bat. The challenge for the Mariners will be whether to keep him at catcher or to put him at first base. Either way, it seems like each team got what they wanted, and on the surface it looks to be a reasonably fair deal.

-Then, the free agent signing. Hiroki Kuroda is a phenominal pitcher when he is healthy. However, his injury history has limited his innings load. This works out pretty nicely for the Yankees given their new found depth. I already mentioned that they have 6 or 7 decent option for 5 spots, so they can use Kuroda when he is healthy, and use Phil Hughes or AJ Burnett if not. I love the look of the new rotation, and Kuroda brings some talent and a different look to the middle of their rotation. I can't imagine how awkward it would feel trying to hit against CC Sabathia one day, and then attempting to regain your timing against Kuroda the next day. The only possible downside to this deal is that Kuroda is an aging, contact pitcher who is used to playing in Los Angeles, which is a very favorable pitching environment. For context, to translate Kuroda's numbers from LA to his new park in New York, you'd have to adjust his stats by an incredible 45% (according to Stat Corner's park effects data). That would push his ERA closer to 4.30 or 4.40. Yankees fans can breathe easy though, because Kuroda does induce a high number of ground balls, and those don't often fly over the fence.

The True Cost of Luxury

An interesting thing happens when a big market team decides to overpay for a free agent. It starts a cycle in which the team has to continue paying for the same mistake over and over again. This is....the more painful, yet unwritten luxury tax. Often, these factors are glossed over because these teams can use their seemingly unlimited resources to cover their tracks, but once a team is labeled as a "free agent big spender" the following problems blossom immediately:

1) By injecting money into your own division with a free agent signing, you are elevating the playing field for all of your competitors and forcing them to spend big.
This is seemingly unavoidable if you want to be successful, but each free agent signing makes the cost of future acquisitions and the cost of a win more expensive moving forward. This hike in cost moving forward occurs regardless of whether or not your big time free agent acquisition produces like you expected him to. For example, the signings of Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson were obviously very expensive, but if the Rangers then signed Prince Fielder and/or Yu Darvish to counter...a large portion of the value to the Angels was just lost. To further this point, if any of the players involved underachieves, the result is a huge cost AND a net loss in performance relative to your competitors.

2) Farewell to the home town discount.
Every team has core players, and these players expect to be treated as such. Therefore, when a core player sees his team lure a free agent to town with a big contract, he sees this as the floor for his own negotiations (assuming relative talent). Teams such as Tampa or Oakland do have a small amount of leverage in that, they can point to the books and say, "If you wish to stay, here is the highest amount we can reasonably pay you." Although this is a false ceiling, it does tend to ground negotiations and forces the player to weigh their drive to achieve a big contract against staying in a place they enjoy. If the player leaves, small market club can often absorb the PR backlash since the public knows of the club's financial limitations. This is even sometimes directed back at the player with accusations of greed. Without this false ceiling, the club ALWAYS loses the PR battle. For example, no one in their right mind would pay Jeter as much as his most recent contract was worth. However, the Yankees were stuck between fans romanticizing Jeter's past performance and Jeter's knowledge of their endless revenue streams. This same factor assisted in pushing Nomar Garciaparra out the door in 2004 because the Red Sox payroll was going sky-high, just as Nomar's performance was in decline. The reports were that the sides weren't close on an extension, so the Sox rightfully opted to make a trade to bring in Orlando Cabrera.

3) Relativity.
Again touching on the Yankees, any free agent pitcher will certainly have New York's history of spending in mind. Negotiations from the player's perspective will certainly open with a favorable comparison. Starting pitcher? "Well I'm THIS much better than AJ Burnett, and you gave him 5 years and 86.5 million. Let's start at 5 years and $110 million" Mediocre relief pitcher? "Well I'm about the same as your ineffective reliever Rafael Soriano, so I'll just take the 3 years, 30 million." Eek. You can see how that adds up quickly.

These three problems never wear off, and they actually accelerate over time. The value of each dollar spent decreases each offseason, because agents and players alike study these trends and use them to their advantage. This is the reason that Scott Boras and Dan Lozano intentionally draw the Phillies, Red Sox, Cubs or Yankees into every single negotiation. These agents have recognized that for these teams to get a dollar's worth of production, they are required to pay their client closer to $1.50.

Editor's note: I'm wondering if the restraint shown by the Yankees and Red Sox so far this offseason are cursory attempts to break this cycle. Contrarily, the Phillies' offseason spending thus far has shown this inflation pretty vividly (Overpay for an incumbent shortstop? check. Dramatically overpay for a closer? check.)